Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Endangered Species Act Listing Determination for the Coral Pocillopora meandrina
| Published date | 06 July 2020 |
| Citation | 85 FR 40480 |
| Record Number | 2020-14304 |
| Section | Notices |
| Court | National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration |
Federal Register, Volume 85 Issue 129 (Monday, July 6, 2020)
[Federal Register Volume 85, Number 129 (Monday, July 6, 2020)]
[Notices]
[Pages 40480-40506]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2020-14304]
[[Page 40479]]
Vol. 85
Monday,
No. 129
July 6, 2020
Part IVDepartment of Commerce-----------------------------------------------------------------------National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-----------------------------------------------------------------------Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Endangered Species Act
Listing Determination for the Coral Pocillopora meandrina; Notice
Federal Register / Vol. 85, No. 129 / Monday, July 6, 2020 /
Notices
[[Page 40480]]
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
[Docket No. 200626-0172; RTID 0648-XG232]
Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Endangered Species
Act Listing Determination for the Coral Pocillopora meandrina
AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.
ACTION: Notice; 12-month finding and availability of status review
documents.
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SUMMARY: We, NMFS, have completed a comprehensive status review under
the Endangered Species Act (ESA) for the Indo-Pacific, reef-building
coral Pocillopora meandrina. After reviewing the best scientific and
commercial data available, including the General Status Review of Indo-
Pacific Reef-building Corals and the P. meandrina Status Review Report,
we have determined that listing P. meandrina as threatened or
endangered based on its status throughout all or a significant portion
of its range under the ESA is not warranted at this time.
DATES: This finding was made on July 6, 2020.
ADDRESSES: The petition, General Status Assessment of Indo-Pacific
Reef-building Corals, P. meandrina Status Review Report, Federal
Register notice, and the list of references can be accessed
electronically online at: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/pocillopora-meandrina-coral#conservation-management.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Lance Smith, NMFS, Pacific Islands
Regional Office, Protected Resources Division, (808) 725-5131; or
Celeste Stout, NMFS, Office of Protected Resources, (301) 427-8436.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
This 12-month finding is a response to a petition to list P.
meandrina under the ESA. Background to the petition, 90-day finding,
and policy on listing species under the ESA is provided below.
Petition and 90-Day Finding
On March 14, 2018, we received a petition from the Center for
Biological Diversity to list the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral
Pocillopora meandrina in Hawaii as an endangered or threatened species
under the ESA. Under the ESA, a listing determination addresses the
status of a species, its subspecies, and, for any vertebrate species,
any distinct population segment (DPS) that interbreeds when mature (16
U.S.C. 1532(16)). Under the ESA, a species is ``endangered'' if it is
in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its
range, or ``threatened'' if it is likely to become endangered within
the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its
range (ESA sections 3(6) and 3(20), respectively, 16 U.S.C. 1532(6) and
(20)). The petition requested that the Hawaii portion of the species'
range be considered a significant portion of its range, thus the
petition focused primarily on the status of P. meandrina in Hawaii.
However, the petition also requested that P. meandrina be listed
throughout its range, and provided some information on its status and
threats outside of Hawaii. In light of recent court decisions regarding
our policy on the interpretation of the phrase ``significant portion of
its range'' (SPR) under the ESA (79 FR 37577, July 1, 2014), we
interpreted the petition as a request to first consider the status of
P. meandrina throughout its range, followed by an SPR review consisting
of: (1) Analysis of any SPRs, including the portion of the range within
Hawaii; and (2) determination of the status of SPRs.
On September 20, 2018, we published a 90-day finding (83 FR 47592)
announcing that the petition presented substantial scientific or
commercial information indicating that P. meandrina may be warranted
for listing under the ESA throughout all or a significant portion of
its range. We also announced the initiation of a status review of the
species, as required by section 4(b)(3)(a) of the ESA, and requested
information to inform the agency's decision on whether this species
warrants listing as endangered or threatened under the ESA.
Listing Species Under the Endangered Species Act
We are responsible for determining whether P. meandrina is
threatened or endangered under the ESA (16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.). To
make this determination, we first consider whether a group of organisms
constitutes a ``species'' under section 3 of the ESA, then whether the
status of the species qualifies it for listing as either threatened or
endangered. Section 3 of the ESA defines species to include subspecies
and, for any vertebrate species, any DPS that interbreeds when mature
(16 U.S.C. 1532(16)). As noted previously, because P. meandrina is an
invertebrate species, the ESA does not consider listing individual
populations as DPSs.
Section 3 of the ESA defines an endangered species as any species
which is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant
portion of its range, and a threatened species as one which is likely
to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future
throughout all or a significant portion of its range. Thus, in the
context of the ESA, the Services interpret an ``endangered species'' to
be one that is presently at risk of extinction. A ``threatened
species'' is not currently at risk of extinction, but is likely to
become so in the foreseeable future (that is, at a later time). The key
statutory difference between a threatened and endangered species is the
timing of when a species is or is likely to become in danger of
extinction, either presently (endangered) or in the foreseeable future
(threatened).
When we consider whether a species qualifies as threatened under
the ESA, we must consider the meaning of the term ``foreseeable
future.'' It is appropriate to interpret ``foreseeable future'' as the
horizon over which predictions about the conservation status of the
species can be reasonably relied upon. What constitutes the foreseeable
future for a particular species depends on species-specific factors
such as the life history of the species, habitat characteristics,
availability of data, particular threats, ability to predict threats,
and the reliability to forecast the effects of these threats and future
events on the status of the species under consideration. That is, the
foreseeability of a species' future status is case specific and depends
upon both the foreseeability of threats to the species and
foreseeability of the species' response to those threats. Our
consideration of the foreseeable future for this status review is
described in the Global Climate Change and the Foreseeable Future
section below.
The statute requires us to determine whether any species is
endangered or threatened throughout all or a significant portion of its
range as a result of any one or a combination of any of the following
factors: The present or threatened destruction, modification, or
curtailment of its habitat or range; overutilization for commercial,
recreational, scientific, or educational purposes; disease or
predation; the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or other
natural or manmade factors affecting its continued existence. 16 U.S.C.
1533(a)(1). We are also required to make listing determinations based
solely on the best scientific and commercial data
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available, after conducting a review of the species' status and after
taking into account efforts, if any, being made by any state or foreign
nation (or subdivision thereof) to protect the species. 16 U.S.C.
1533(b)(1)(A).
General Status Assessment, Status Review Report, and Extinction Risk
Assessment Team
The rangewide Status Review of P. meandrina consists of two
documents: (1) The General Status Assessment (GSA) of Indo-Pacific
Reef-building Corals (Smith 2019a); and (2) the P. meandrina Status
Review Report (SRR; Smith 2019b). The GSA (Smith 2019a) provides
contextual information on the status and trends of Indo-Pacific reef-
building corals, and the SRR (Smith 2019b) reports the status and
trends of P. meandrina based on the best available scientific
information. Based on the information provided in the Status Review
reports (Smith 2019a,b), an Extinction Risk Assessment (ERA) was
carried out as specified in the ``Guidance on Responding to Petitions
and Conducting Status Reviews under the Endangered Species Act'' (NMFS
2017). As per the guidance, an ERA Team was established, consisting of
seven reef-building coral subject matter experts, and the Team used the
information in the Status Review reports to provide ratings of P.
meandrina's extinction risk, described in the final section of the SRR
(Smith 2019b).
The two reports that make up this Status Review (Smith 2019a,b)
represent a compilation of the best available scientific and commercial
information on the P. meandrina's biology, ecology, life history,
threats, and status from information contained in the petition, our
files, a comprehensive literature search, and consultation with Indo-
Pacific reef coral experts. We also considered information submitted by
the public in response to our 90-day finding (83 FR 47592; September
20, 2018). The draft Status Review reports (Smith 2019a,b) underwent
independent peer review by reef coral experts as required by the Office
of Management and Budget (OMB) Final Information Quality Bulletin for
Peer Review (M-05-03; December 16, 2004). The peer reviewers were asked
to evaluate the adequacy, appropriateness, and application of data used
in the Status Review reports, including the Extinction Risk Assessment
methodology. Peer reviewer comments were addressed prior to
dissemination and finalization of the Status Review reports and
publication of this finding, as described in the Peer Review Report.
We subsequently reviewed the Status Review reports (Smith 2019a,b),
their cited references, and peer review comments, and believe the
Status Review reports, upon which this 12-month finding are based,
provide the best available scientific and commercial information on P.
meandrina. Much of the information discussed below on the species'
biology, distribution, abundance, threats, and extinction risk is
presented in the Status Review reports (Smith 2019a,b). However, in
making the 12-month finding determinations (i.e., our decisions that P.
meandrina is not warranted for listing rangewide, nor as any SPRs), we
have independently applied the statutory provisions of the ESA,
including evaluation of the factors set forth in section 4(a)(1)(A)-(E)
and our regulations regarding listing determinations at 50 CFR part
424. The Status Review reports (Smith 2019a,b) and the Peer Review
Report are available on our website at http://www.cio.noaa.gov/services_programs/prplans/PRsummaries.html.
Global Climate Change and the Foreseeable Future
Many of the threats to P. meandrina, including the most severe
threats, stem from global climate change (Smith 2019b). As described in
the preceding ``Listing Species Under the Endangered Species Act''
section, the purpose of this finding is to determine the extinction
risk of the species now and in the foreseeable future. The extinction
risk of P. meandrina now and in the immediate future depends on the
impacts of threats resulting from the continuation of ongoing climate
change. Its extinction risk in the future depends on how far into the
future climate change threats are foreseeable, and what impacts those
threats will have on the species over that timeframe. Thus, this
section provides an overview of global climate change and existing
guidance, a description of the climate change status quo, the rationale
for our determination of the length of the foreseeable future for the
most important threats to P. meandrina (ocean warming and ocean
acidification), and descriptions of the impacts of those threats on the
species over the foreseeable future.
Overview of Global Climate Change and Existing Guidance
Global climate change refers to increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases (GHGs; primarily carbon dioxide, but also methane,
nitrous oxide, and others) in the atmosphere from anthropogenic
emissions, and subsequent warming of the earth, acidification of the
oceans, rising sea-levels, and other impacts since the beginning of the
industrial era in the mid-19th century. Since that time, the release of
carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial and agricultural
activities has resulted in atmospheric CO2 concentrations
that have increased from approximately 280 ppm in 1850 to 410 ppm in
2019 (Smith 2019a). The resulting warming of the earth has been
unequivocal, and each of the last three decades has been successively
warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. The climate change
components of the P. meandrina Status Review were based on the
International Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report
``Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis'' (AR5; IPCC 2013a),
the IPCC's ``Global Warming of 1.5[deg] C'' (1.5[deg] Report; IPCC
2018), and other climate change literature cited in the GSA and SRR.
The IPCC published the 1.5[deg] Report to compare the impacts of global
warming of 1.5[deg] C vs. 2.0[deg] C above pre-industrial levels, in
response to the 2015 Paris Agreement's objective of limiting global
warming to 1.5[deg] C. The IPCC's AR5 and the 1.5[deg] Report together
represent the largest synthesis of global climate change physical
science ever compiled. The IPCC is currently compiling its Sixth
Assessment Report (AR6), due to be published in 2021 or 2022 (Smith
2019a).
Observed and projected global mean surface temperatures (GMST) from
the pre-industrial baseline period of 1850-1900 to the year 2100
provide context for the climate change threats facing P. meandrina and
other species. GMST refers to the mean of land and sea temperatures
observed at the earth's surface. Since the pre-industrial period, GMST
has increased by nearly 1[deg] C due to GHG emissions, and estimated
anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at approximately
0.2[deg] C per decade due to past and ongoing GHG emissions. Warming
greater than the global annual average is being experienced in many
land regions and seasons, including two to three times higher in the
Arctic. Warming is generally higher over land than over the ocean, thus
warming of the ocean lags behind warming of air at the earth's surface.
Regardless of future emissions, warming from past anthropogenic GHG
emissions since the pre-industrial period will persist for centuries to
millennia, and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the
climate system, such as sea-level rise, with associated impacts (Smith
2019a).
In order to ensure consistency in the application of climate change
science to
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ESA decisions, in 2016 NMFS issued ``Guidance for Treatment of Climate
Change in NMFS Endangered Species Act Decisions'' (Climate Guidance,
NMFS 2016). The Climate Guidance provides seven policy considerations,
the first two of which are particularly relevant to the P. meandrina
finding: (1) ``Consideration of future climate condition uncertainty--
For ESA decisions involving species influenced by climate change, NMFS
will use climate indicator values (i.e., quantitative projections of
ocean warming, ocean acidification, and other climate change impacts)
projected under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s
Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 when data are available. When
data specific to that pathway are not available we will use the best
available science that is as consistent as possible with RCP 8.5'', and
(2) ``Selecting a climate change projection timeframe--(A) When
predicting the future status of species in ESA Section 4, NMFS will
project climate change effects for the longest time period over which
we can foresee the effects of climate change on the species' status.''
(NMFS 2016). The application of these two policy considerations to the
P. meandrina finding are described below.
RCP8.5 As the Status Quo
AR5 (IPCC 2013a) projected GMST from 2006 over the remainder of the
21st century using a set of four representative concentration pathways
(RCPs) that provide a standard framework for consistently modeling
future climate change under different assumptions. The four RCPs span a
range of possible futures, from high GHG emissions peaking near 2100
(RCP8.5), to intermediate emissions (RCP6.0 and RCP4.5), to low
emissions (RCP2.6). The 1.5[deg] Report (IPCC 2018) developed
additional pathways with lower emissions than RCP2.6. The IPCC's
pathways are based on projected concentrations of CO2 and
other GHGs in the earth's atmosphere. As atmospheric GHG concentrations
increase, less of the sun's heat can be radiated back into space,
causing the earth to absorb more heat. The increased heat forces
changes on the earth's climate system, and thus is referred to as
``radiative forcing.'' AR5's four RCPs are named according to radiative
forcing of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Watts per square meter of the earth's
surface. These result from atmospheric CO2 concentrations of
421 (RCP2.6), 538 (RCP4.5), 670 (RCP6.0), and 936 (RCP8.5) ppm in 2100.
The 1.5[deg] Report includes pathways with lower CO2 levels
than RCP2.6 (IPCC 2013a, 2018).
The various pathways were developed with the intent of providing
different potential climate change projections to guide policy
discussions. The IPCC does not attach likelihoods to the pathways.
Taken together, the four pathways in AR5 project wide ranges of
increases in GMSTs, ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea level rise,
and other changes globally throughout the 21st century (Smith 2019a).
Summaries of the most recent information on observed and projected
ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise are provided in
the GSA (Smith 2019a), and support RCP8.5 as representative of the
status quo. For example, according to the most recent Global Carbon
Budget report (Friedlingstein et al 2019), global CO2
emissions from fossil fuels and industry grew continuously from 2010 to
2019; and global atmospheric CO2 concentration grew from
approximately 385 in 2010 to 410 ppm in 2019, with each year setting
new historic highs, according to NOAA's Earth System Research
Laboratory (ESRL) station on Mauna Kea, Hawaii (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/, accessed December 2019). This rapid
growth in global CO2 emissions and atmospheric
CO2 is more consistent with RCP8.5 than any of the other
pathways in AR5 (IPCC 2013a) or the 1.5[deg] C Report (IPCC 2018).
The Foreseeable Future for P. meandrina
The Climate Guidance (NMFS 2016) directs us to determine the
longest period over which we can reasonably foresee the effects of
climate change on the species. The IPCC pathways (IPCC 2013a, IPCC
2018) use the year 2100 as the main end-point for their climate change
projections. The IPCC's AR5 and the 1.5[deg] Reports (IPCC 2013a, IPCC
2018), together with the large and growing scientific literature on
projected impacts of the IPCC pathways on coral reef ecosystems,
provide considerable information on how climate change threats are
likely to affect corals and coral reefs from now to 2100. Although
there is wide variability in the IPCC pathways (e.g., RCP8.5 vs. the
1.5[deg] Report's pathways would result in highly contrasting impacts
to most of the world's ecosystems over the 21st century), 2100 is
foreseeable because some pathways are more likely than others over that
timeframe, as explained in the following paragraph.
Since the status quo is best represented by RCP8.5, we consider
climate indicator values projected under RCP8.5 to be likely over at
least the near future. Beyond that, current GHG emissions policies
resulting from the 2015 Paris Agreement may eventually lead to climate
indicator values projected under the intermediate emissions pathways
RCPs 6.0 and 4.5 (CAT 2019, Hausfather and Peters 2020, UNEP 2019).
However, such projections have high inherent uncertainty (IPCC 2018,
Jeffery et al. 2018), thus climate indicator values projected under
RCP8.5 may continue to prevail beyond the near future. Therefore, based
on the status quo, current policies, and uncertainty, we consider it
likely that climate indicator values between now and 2100 will be
within the collective ranges of those projected under RCPs 8.5, 6.0,
and 4.5.
The two most severe threats to P. meandrina are ocean warming and
ocean acidification, both of which are caused by climate change (Smith
2019a,b). Projections of climate indicator values for ocean warming
(sea surface temperature) and ocean acidification (sea surface pH and
aragonite saturation state) under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5 within the
range of P. meandrina are described in the following sections. These
projections lead to our conclusions about the length of the foreseeable
future for ocean warming and ocean acidification that will be applied
to the P. meandrina 12-month finding.
The Foreseeable Future for Ocean Warming and P. meandrina. Global
warming projections under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5 over the 21st century,
and subsequent ocean warming impacts on P. meandrina, are described in
NMFS (2020a) and summarized here. AR5's Supplementary Materials (IPCC
2013b,c,d) provide detailed projections of future warming of air over
land and sea grid points of the earth's surface under each RCP for the
time periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, including regional
projections within the range of P. meandrina. Warming of seawater at
the sea's surface lags behind warming of air at the sea's surface.
Although AR5's detailed projections in the Supplementary Materials are
for air at the sea's surface, they indicate likely proportional warming
of seawater (NMFS 2020a, Fig. 1).
For each RCP (8.5, 6.0, 4.5) and time period (2016-2035, 2046-2065,
2081-2100), AR5 provides global maps of projected annual warming across
the earth's surface, as explained in more detail in NMFS (2020a).
Projected additional warming above what has already occurred is highest
under RCP8.5, intermediate under RCP6.0, and lowest under RCP4.5 (NMFS
2020a, Fig. 2). The ranges of projected warming
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under the three RCPs overlap with one another, illustrating the high
variability in the projections (NMFS 2020a, Fig. 3). Within the range
of P. meandrina, AR5 provides regional maps of projected annual warming
for the eastern Pacific Ocean, the western Indian Ocean, the northern
Indian Ocean, the Coral Triangle, northern Australia, and the tropical
Pacific. As with the global projections, projected additional warming
within the range of P. meandrina above what has already occurred is
highest under RCP8.5 (2-4 [deg]C), intermediate under RCP6.0 (1-3
[deg]C), and lowest under RCP4.5 (1-2 [deg]C), but with high
variability (NMFS 2020a, Figs. 4-9).
Ocean warming can result in the bleaching of the tissues of reef-
building coral colonies, including P. meandrina colonies, whereby the
unicellular photosynthetic algae living within their tissues
(zooxanthellae) are expelled in response to stress. For many reef-
building coral species, including P. meandrina, an increase of only 1
[deg]C-2 [deg]C above the normal local seasonal maximum ocean
temperature can induce bleaching. Corals can withstand mild to moderate
bleaching; however, severe, repeated, or prolonged bleaching can lead
to colony death (Smith 2019a).
The projected responses of reef-building corals to ocean warming in
the 21st century under RCPs 8.5, 6.0 and 4.5 have been modeled in
several recent papers. An analysis of likely disease outbreaks in reef-
building corals resulting from ocean warming projected by RCP8.5 and
RCP4.5 concluded that both pathways are likely to cause sharply
increased coral disease before 2100 (Maynard et al. 2015). An analysis
of the timing and extent of Annual Severe Bleaching (ASB) of the
world's coral reefs under RCPs 8.5 and 4.5 found that the average
timing of ASB would be only 11 years earlier under RCP8.5 (2043) than
RCP4.5 (2054; van Hooidonk et al. 2016). Similarly, an analysis of the
timing and extent of warming-induced bleaching of the world's coral
reefs under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5 found little difference between the
pathways, with 60-100 percent of Indo-Pacific coral reefs experiencing
severe bleaching by 2100 under all three pathways (Hoegh-Guldberg et
al. 2017). A study of the adaptive capacity of a population of the
Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acorpora hyacinthus to ocean warming
projected that it would go extinct by 2055 and 2080 under RCPs 8.5 and
6.0, respectively, and decline by 60 percent by 2100 under RCP4.5 as a
result of warming-induced bleaching (Bay et al. 2017). These papers
illustrate that the overall projected trends are sharply downward under
all three RCPs in terms of ocean warming impacts on Indo-Pacific reef-
building corals.
As far as we know, there are no reports that model projected
responses of P. meandrina to ocean warming in the 21st century under
any of the RCPs. As described in the SRR (Smith 2019b), we consider P.
meandrina's vulnerability to ocean warming in the 21st century to be
high, based on observed susceptibility to the ocean warming that has
occurred over the past several decades, together with increasing
exposure as the oceans continue to warm throughout the remainder of the
century. We expect vulnerability of P. meandrina to ocean warming to
increase in the 21st century as climate change worsens, resulting in
higher frequency, severity, and magnitude of warming-induced bleaching
events (Smith 2019b).
Based on the available information, we cannot distinguish the
likely responses of P. meandrina to projected ocean warming under the
three RCPs from one another because: (1) All three RCPs project large
increases in warming relative to historical rates of change (NMFS
2020a, Fig. 1), especially in the late 21st century (NMFS 2020a, Fig.
2); (2) the ranges of warming projected by each RCP are broad and
overlapping with one another (NMFS 2020a, Fig. 3), reflecting high
uncertainty; (3) the projections are for warming of air at the sea's
surface, but warming of the ocean itself lags behind, reducing
distinctions between RCPs; and (4) as has already been documented,
there is high spatial variability in how P. meandrina's responds to a
given warming event, and high temporal variability in how a given P.
meandrina population responds to multiple warming events over time
(Smith 2019b), reflecting high uncertainty in projecting the responses
of this species to warming.
The Foreseeable Future for Ocean Acidification and P. meandrina.
Ocean acidification projections under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5 over the
21st century are described in AR5 (IPCC 2013a), and summarized in NMFS
(2020a) for P. meandrina's range. Unlike for global warming, AR5 does
not include detailed regional comparisons of projected ocean
acidification under the different RCPs. Ocean acidification, however,
reduces the aragonite saturation state ([Omega]arg) in
seawater by lowering the supersaturation of carbonite minerals
including aragonite, the form of calcite that makes up the skeletons of
reef-building corals (Smith 2019a).
Under RCP8.5, mean global pH of open surface waters is projected to
decline from the 1986-2005 average of approximately 8.12 to
approximately 7.77 by 2100, with the greatest reductions in the higher
latitude areas of the P. meandrina's range, such as the southern Great
Barrier Reef (GBR) and the northern Philippines, resulting in
[Omega]arg levels dropping to 1.75-2.5 in open surface
waters within most of the species' range by 2090. Under RCP6.0, mean pH
is projected to decline to approximately 7.88 by 2100, resulting in
[Omega]arg levels dropping to 2.25-3 within most of the
species' range by 2090. Under RCP4.5, mean pH is projected to decline
to approximately 7.97 by 2100, resulting in [Omega]arg
levels dropping to 2.75-3.25 within most of the species' range by 2090
(NMFS 2020a, Figs. 10-12).
These general projections are for open surface waters, and are not
necessarily representative of nearshore waters, because of multiple
physical factors that cause high natural variability in pH of seawater
and [Omega]arg on coral reefs. The projected ocean
acidification of open surface waters is expected to eventually result
in proportional reductions in seawater pH and [Omega]arg on
coral reefs, but these changes will lag behind open surface waters and
be much more variable both spatially and temporally (Smith 2019a). For
example, while the [Omega]arg levels of open surface waters
are projected to decline to 1.75-2.5 within most of the range of P.
meandrina by 2090 (NMFS 2020a, Fig. 12), an analysis of 19 coral reefs
in the Indo-Pacific projected [Omega]arg levels to range
from approximately 1.4 to 3.0 at the sites in 2100 (Eyre et al. 2018).
As described in more detail in the GSA (Smith 2019a), ocean
acidification impacts reef-building corals and coral reef communities
in several ways. The reduced [Omega]arg levels from ocean
acidification result in decreased calcification of coral colonies,
leading to lower skeletal growth rates and lower skeletal density.
Generally, [Omega]arg should be >3 to enable adequate
calcification of reef-building corals, and [Omega]arg levels
of arg levels also cause increased dissolution of the
calcium carbonate structure of coral reefs, leading to reef erosion
rates outpacing accretion rates (Smith 2019a).
The projected responses of reef-building corals and coral reefs to
ocean acidification in the 21st century under conditions projected for
RCPs 8.5, 6.0 and 4.5 have been reviewed or modeled in several recent
papers. A review of laboratory studies on the effects of
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ocean acidification and ocean warming spanning the entire range of
conditions projected under the three RCPs found that RCP8.5 would
result in the greatest reduction in calcification (>20 percent), but
that the impacts of different levels of ocean acidification were
complicated by species, habitat type, and interactions with warming
(Kornder et al. 2018). A model of the effects of ocean acidification
alone (i.e., without considering the additive effect of ocean warming)
projected under RCP8.5 found that the skeletal density of reef-building
Porites corals is likely to decrease by 20 percent by 2100 (Mollica et
al. 2018). An analysis of the timing and extent of ocean acidification
and ocean warming on the world's coral reefs under the three RCPs found
that there would be progressively greater and earlier declines in
calcification under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5, respectively, over the 21st
century. Spatial variability in the projected calcification reductions
was very high, especially in the Indo-Pacific (van Hooidonk et al.
2014).
As far as we know, there are no reports that model projected
responses of P. meandrina to ocean acidification in the 21st century
under any of the RCPs. As described in the SRR (Smith 2019b), we
consider P. meandrina's vulnerability to ocean acidification in the
21st century to be high, based on high susceptibility and moderate to
high exposure throughout the remainder of the century. We expect
vulnerability of P. meandrina to ocean acidification to increase in the
21st century as climate change worsens, resulting in reductions in
calcification and skeletal growth (Smith 2019b).
Based on the available information, we cannot distinguish the
likely responses of P. meandrina to projected ocean acidification under
the three RCPs from one another because: (1) All three RCPs project
worsening ocean acidification and reduced [Omega]arg levels
over the 21st century (NMFS 2020a, Fig. 10-12); (2) the ranges of
reduced [Omega]arg levels projected by each RCP are broad
and overlapping with one another (NMFS 2020a, Fig. 12), reflecting high
uncertainty; (3) the projections of reduced [Omega]arg
levels vary depending on whether feedbacks are considered (NMFS 2020a,
Fig. 12), reflecting additional uncertainty; and (4) the above
projections are for open surface waters, but many abiotic and biotic
factors cause greater fluctuations and different mean values in pH and
[Omega]arg on coral reefs than in open surface waters,
resulting in high spatial and temporal variability in the impacts of
ocean acidification on reef-building corals such as P. meandrina (Smith
2019b), thereby further blurring the distinctions between projections
of the three RCPs.
Foreseeable Future Conclusion. Ocean warming and ocean
acidification represent the two greatest threats to P. meandrina in the
foreseeable future, both of which are caused by climate change. While
different levels of ocean warming are projected under RCPs 8.5, 6.0,
and 4.5 from now to 2100, the projected impacts of warming-induced
bleaching on P. meandrina are not clearly distinctive between the RCPs,
and all three RCPs result in substantially worsening impacts. Thus,
impacts of warming-induced bleaching on P. meandrina are reasonably
foreseeable to 2100.
Likewise, while different levels of ocean acidification are
projected under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5 from now to 2100, the projected
impacts of reduced [Omega]arg levels on P. meandrina are not
clearly distinctive between the RCPs, and all three RCPs result in
substantially worsening impacts. Thus, impacts from ocean acidification
and reduced [Omega]arg levels on P. meandrina are also
reasonably foreseeable to 2100.
Indo-Pacific Reef-Building Corals
Indo-Pacific reef-building corals share many biological
characteristics, occupy many similar habitat types, are subject to
similar key trends, and are threatened primarily by the same suite of
global climate change and local threats. In addition, typically more
information is available on the status and trends of reef coral
communities (e.g., live coral cover) than species-specific information.
Thus, to provide context for determining the status of P. meandrina,
general information on Indo-Pacific reef-building coral biology,
habitats, key trends, and threats is provided in the GSA (Smith 2019a)
and summarized below.
Biology and Habitats
Reef-building corals are defined by symbioses with unicellular
photosynthetic algae living within their tissues (zooxanthellae),
giving them the capacity to grow large skeletons and thrive in
nutrient-poor tropical and subtropical seas. Since reef-building corals
are defined by their symbiosis with zooxanthellae, they are sometimes
referred to as ``zooxanthellate'' or ``hermatypic'' corals. Reef-
building corals collectively produce shallow coral reefs over time, but
also occur in non-reef and mesophotic areas, both of which are defined
in the habitat section below. That is, these species are reef-building,
but they are not reef-dependent, thus reef-building corals are not
limited to shallow coral reefs (NMFS 2014).
Reef-building corals are marine invertebrates in the phylum
Cnidaria that occur as polyps, usually forming colonies of many clonal
polyps on a calcium carbonate skeleton. The Cnidaria include true stony
corals (class Anthozoa, order Scleractinia, including both reef-
building, zooxanthellate and non-reef-building, azooxanthellate
species), the blue coral (class Anthozoa, order Helioporacea), and fire
corals (class Hydrozoa, order Milleporina). Most reef-building corals
form complex colonies made up of a tissue layer of polyps (a column
with mouth and tentacles on the upper side) growing on top of a calcium
carbonate skeleton, which the polyps produce through the process of
calcification (Brainard et al. 2011). As of 2019, Veron estimates that
758 species of reef-building corals occur in the Indo-Pacific, over 90
percent of the world's total (Corals of the World, http://www.coralsoftheworld.org, November 2019).
Most Indo-Pacific reef-building corals have many biological
features that complicate the determination of the status of any given
species, including but not necessarily limited to the following: They
are modular, colonial, and sessile; the definition of the individual is
ambiguous; the taxonomy of many species is uncertain; field
identification of species is difficult; each colony is a collection of
coral-algae-microbe symbiotic relationships; they have high skeletal
plasticity; they utilize a combination of sexual and asexual
reproduction; hybridization may be common in many species; and they
typically occur as many populations across very large ranges. These and
other biological features of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals are
described in more detail in the GSA (Smith 2019a).
Indo-Pacific reef-building corals occur on shallow coral reefs (30 m depth), in
the tropical and sub-tropical waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans,
including the eastern Pacific. This vast region includes over 50,000
islands and over 40,000 km of continental coastline, spanning
approximately 180 degrees longitude and 60 degrees latitude, and
including more than 90 percent of the total coral reefs of the world.
In addition to this region's extensive shallow coral reefs, the Indo-
Pacific includes: (1) Abundant non-reef habitat, defined as areas where
environmental conditions prevent reef formation by reef-building
corals, but some reef-building coral species are present; and (2) vast
but scarcely known
[[Page 40485]]
mesophotic habitat, defined as areas deeper than 30 meters of depth
where reef-building corals are present. Shallow coral reefs, non-reef
habitat, and mesophotic habitat are not necessarily sharply delineated
from one another, thus one may gradually blend into another. The total
area of non-reef and mesophotic habitats is likely far greater than the
total area of shallow coral reef habitats in the Indo-Pacific (NMFS
2014).
In addition to the biological features described above, there are
several habitat features of Indo-Pacific reef-building coral species
that should be considered in the determination of the status of any
given species including, but not necessarily limited to: (1) Specific
substrate and water quality requirements of each life history stage;
(2) ranges of many of these species encompass shallow coral reef, non-
reef, and mesophotic habitats that vary tremendously across latitude,
longitude, depth, distance from land, and in other ways; and (3)
physical variability in habitat characteristics within the ranges of
these species produces spatial and temporal refuges from threats. That
is, habitat heterogeneity and refugia produce a patchy mosaic of
conditions across the ranges of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals,
which complicates the determination of the status of any given species.
These and other habitat features of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals
are described in more detail in the GSA (Smith 2019a).
Key Trends
The health of reef-building coral communities is largely determined
by the extent of disturbance, together with recovery from it. The most
common measure of the condition of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals is
live coral cover. Resilience is the capacity of a community to recover
from disturbance. Observations and projections of anthropogenic
disturbance, recovery time, coral cover, and overall resilience of
Indo-Pacific reef-building coral communities provide insight on the
status and trends of these communities.
The main threats to Indo-Pacific reef-building corals are acute and
chronic anthropogenic disturbances, most of which have been increasing
over the last half-century or more. In particular, warming-induced
coral bleaching events are acute disturbances that have been increasing
in frequency, severity, and magnitude over the last several decades,
especially since 2014. Other disturbances of Indo-Pacific coral reef
communities are chronic, such as ocean acidification because of its
continual effects on both coral calcification and reef accretion, and
localized land-based sources of pollution and coral disease outbreaks.
Both acute and chronic anthropogenic disturbances are broadening and
worsening on coral reefs near human populations throughout the Indo-
Pacific, and all anthropogenic disturbances of Indo-Pacific coral reefs
are projected to worsen throughout the foreseeable future (Smith
2019a,b).
Studies of the recovery of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals
(excluding the eastern Pacific) show that the majority of sites showed
significant recovery from, or resistance to, anthropogenic disturbance
over the latter part of the 20th century and early part of the 21st
century (Tables 1a and 1b, Smith 2019a). The available information does
not indicate that the capacity for recovery of Indo-Pacific reef-
building corals has substantially declined. However, due to increased
frequency of disturbance, the amount of time available for corals to
recover has declined. Furthermore, since the frequency of disturbance
is projected to increase as climate change worsens, recovery time is
projected to continue to decrease throughout the foreseeable future
(Smith 2019a,b).
The available information clearly indicates that mean coral cover
has declined across much of the Indo-Pacific since the 1970s (Tables 2
and 3, Smith 2019a), and likely many decades before then in some
locations. High spatial and temporal variability influenced by a large
number of natural and anthropogenic factors can mask the overall trend
in coral cover, but long-term monitoring programs and meta-analyses
demonstrate downward temporal trends in most of the Indo-Pacific.
Because disturbance is projected to increase in frequency throughout
the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b), and this is expected to result
in reduced recovery times, mean coral cover in the Indo-Pacific is also
projected to decrease, especially as climate change worsens (Smith
2019a).
Despite increasing disturbance, decreasing recovery times, and
decreasing coral cover, the available information suggests that overall
resilience of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals remains quite high
because: (1) Observed impacts of disturbances on corals have been
spatially highly variable due to habitat heterogeneity; (2) factors
that confer resilience (high habitat heterogeneity, large ecosystem
size, high coral and reef fish species diversity) have not declined;
(3) observed responses of corals to disturbances indicate that most
either recovered or were resistant; and (4) observed responses of
corals to disturbances indicate that phase shifts have so far been
either rare or reversed. However, the trends in disturbance, recovery
time, and coral cover are projected to worsen with climate change, thus
overall resilience is also projected to decrease throughout the
foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b).
Threats
We consider global climate change-related threats of ocean warming,
ocean acidification, and sea-level rise, and the local threats of
fishing, land-based sources of pollution, coral disease, predation, and
collection and trade, to be the most important to the extinction risk
of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals currently and throughout the
foreseeable future. The most important of these is ocean warming. In
addition, five lesser global and local threats are also described
(changes in ocean circulation, changes in tropical storms, human-
induced physical damage, invasive species, and changes in salinity).
The interactions of threats with one another could be significantly
worse than any individual threat, especially as each threat grows. Each
threat, and the interactions of threats, are described both in terms of
observed effects since relevant scientific information became available
(usually mid-20th century), and projected effects throughout the
foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b).
The effects of most threats to Indo-Pacific reef-building corals
have already been observed to be worsening, based on the monitoring
results and the scientific literature. Ocean warming in conjunction
with the other threats have recently resulted in the worst impacts to
Indo-Pacific reef-building corals ever observed. These impacts are
further described in terms of increasing disturbance, less time
available for recovery, decreasing coral cover, and decreasing
resilience in the trends section above. All threats are projected to
worsen throughout the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b), based on the
scientific literature, climate change models, and other information
such as human population trends in the Indo-Pacific.
Summary for Indo-Pacific Reef-Building Corals
Indo-Pacific reef-building corals are a diverse group ([ap]760
species) with many biological features that complicate the
determination of the status of any given species. These species occur
in vast and diverse habitats including shallow coral reefs, non-reef
areas, and mesophotic areas throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Key observed trends include
[[Page 40486]]
increasing anthropogenic disturbances, decreasing recovery time, and
decreasing live coral cover, while overall resilience remains high.
However, all trends are projected to worsen throughout the foreseeable
future (Smith 2019a,b). Community trends do not necessarily represent
individual species trends, but they provide valuable context that
inform investigations of the status of species within the community
such as P. meandrina.
Pocillopora meandrina Status Review
This status review of P. meandrina is based on the methodology
provided in the ``Guidance on Responding to Petitions and Conducting
Status Reviews under the Endangered Species Act'' (NMFS 2017): An
overall extinction risk assessment of the species is based on dual
assessments of its demographic risk factors (distribution, abundance,
productivity, diversity) and a threats evaluation. Thus, the P.
meandrina SRR (Smith 2019b) covers introductory information (biology,
habitat), demographic risk factors, threats evaluation, and extinction
risk assessment, which are summarized below.
Biology and Habitats
Pocillopora meandrina was described by James Dana from specimens
collected in Hawai`i (Dana 1846a, b), thus the formal scientific name
is ``Pocillopora meandrina, Dana 1846''. Morphologically, P. meandrina
colonies are small upright bushes, with branches radiating from the
initial point of growth. Adult colonies are commonly 20-40 cm (8-16 in)
in diameter, with branches radiating from the initial point of growth.
Coloration is typically light brown or cream, but may also be green or
pink (Fenner 2005, Corals of the World website,http://www.coralsoftheworld.org, accessed November 2019).
Taxonomic uncertainty refers to how a species should be
scientifically classified. Taxonomic uncertainty appears to be lower
for P. meandrina than some other Pocillopora species, and available
information supports the conclusion that P. meandrina is a valid
species. Whereas taxonomic uncertainty refers to how a species should
be scientifically classified, species identification uncertainty refers
to how a species should be identified in the field. We do not believe
that species identification uncertainty for P. meandrina affects the
quality of the information used in this status review. The taxonomic
and species identification uncertainty for P. meandrina are described
in detail in the SRR (Smith 2019b).
As with most other reef-building corals, P. meandrina is modular
(the primary polyp produces genetically-identical secondary polyps or
``modules'') and colonial (the polyps aggregate to form a colony). The
primary and secondary polyps are connected seamlessly through both
tissue and skeleton into a colony. A colony can continue to exist even
if numerous polyps die, the colony is broken apart, or otherwise
damaged (Smith 2019a,b). Under the ESA, the ``physiological colony''
(Hughes 1984), defined as any colony of the species whether sexually or
asexually produced, is considered an individual for reef-building
colonial coral species such as P. meandrina (NMFS 2014).
Reef-building corals like P. meandrina build reefs because they are
sessile (the colony is attached to the substrate), secreting their own
custom-made substrates which grow into skeletons, providing the primary
building blocks for coral reef structure. One of the most important
aspects of sessile life history for consideration of extinction risk is
that colonies cannot flee from unfavorable environmental conditions,
thus must have substantial capacity for acclimatization to the natural
variability in environmental conditions at their location. Likewise,
since P. meandrina populations are distributed throughout a large range
with environmental conditions that vary by latitude, longitude,
proximity to land, etc., the populations must have substantial capacity
for adaptation to the natural variability in environmental conditions
across their ranges (Smith 2019a,b).
Reef-building corals like P. meandrina act as plants during the day
by utilizing photosynthesis (autotrophic feeding), and they act as
animals during the night by utilizing predation (heterotrophic
feeding). Autotrophic feeding is accomplished via symbiosis with
unicellular photosynthetic algae living within the host coral's tissues
(zooxanthellae). The host coral benefits by receiving fixed organic
carbon and other nutrients from the zooxanthellae, and the
zooxanthellae benefit by receiving inorganic waste metabolites from the
coral host as well as protection from grazing. This exchange of
nutrients allows both partners to flourish and helps the host coral
secrete calcium carbonate that forms the skeletal structure of the
coral colony. Heterotrophic feeding is accomplished by extending their
nematocyst-containing tentacles to sting and capture zooplankton (Smith
2019a,b).
Pocillopora meandrina reproduces both sexually and asexually.
Sexual reproduction is by broadcast spawning, and asexual reproduction
is by fragmentation. The larvae of P. meandrina disperse by swimming,
drifting, or rafting, providing the potential for high dispersal. The
larvae readily recruit to both natural and artificial hard surfaces.
Like many branching coral species, P. meandrina has high skeletal
growth rates relative to most other Indo-Pacific reef-building coral
species (Smith 2019b). Pocillopora meandrina has been classified as a
competitive species, based on its broadcast spawning, rapid skeletal
growth, and branching colony morphology, which allow it to recruit
quickly to available substrate and successfully compete for space
(Darling et al. 2012). More information about P. meandrina's
reproduction, dispersal, recruitment, and growth is provided in the
Productivity portion of the Demographic Factors section, and in the SRR
(Smith 2019b).
The preferred habitat of P. meandrina is high energy reef crests
and upper reef slopes. In Hawai`i where there are relatively few other
coral species to compete with, P. meandrina dominates such high energy
habitat to the extent that it has been termed the ``P. meandrina zone''
(Dollar 1982). The species is abundant in other types of high energy
habitats, including non-reef habitats like lava bedrock, and
unconsolidated rocks and boulders. The species also occurs in lower
abundances in most other habitats where reef-building corals are found,
such as middle and lower reef slopes, back-reef areas such as reef
flats and patch reefs, and atoll lagoons. In addition, P. meandrina can
be one of the most common corals found on artificial substrates, such
as concrete structures and metal buoys. Although much more common in
shallow water, P. meandrina occurs at depths of >30 m (98 ft; Smith
2019b).
In summary, several characteristics of P. meandrina's biology and
habitat moderate its extinction risk. As with most other reef-building
corals, P. meandrina occurs as colonies of polyps that can continue to
exist even if numerous polyps die, the colony is broken apart, or
otherwise damaged. Since colonies are sessile, they cannot flee from
unfavorable environmental conditions, thus must have substantial
capacity for acclimatization and adaptation to the natural variability
in environmental conditions at their location. In addition, P.
meandrina has a high capacity to successfully compete for space with
other reef-building corals,
[[Page 40487]]
especially following disturbances when it is often one of the first
coral species to colonize denuded substrates. With regard to habitat,
it is most abundant in high energy habitats with strong currents and
constant wave action such as reef crests and upper reef slopes
throughout its range, but is also found on deeper reef slopes, back-
reef areas, lava, boulders, and artificial substrates (Smith 2019b).
Demographic Factors
In order to determine the extinction risk of species being
considered for ESA listing, NMFS uses a demographic risk analysis
framework that considers the four demographic factors of distribution,
abundance, productivity, and diversity (NMFS 2017). Each demographic
risk factor is described for P. meandrina below.
Distribution. Pocillopora meandrina is found on most coral reefs of
the Indo-Pacific and eastern Pacific, with its range encompassing
>230[deg] longitude from the western Indian Ocean to the eastern
Pacific Ocean, and [ap]60[deg] latitude from the northern Ryukyu
Islands to central western Australia in the western Pacific, and the
Gulf of California to Easter Island in the eastern Pacific.
Distribution of P. meandrina is summarized here in terms of geographic
distribution across the Indo-Pacific area, as well as depth
distribution, based on the detailed descriptions in the SRR (Smith
2019b).
The Corals of the World website (http://www.coralsoftheworld.org)
provides comprehensive range information for all 758 currently known
Indo-Pacific reef-building corals, based on presence/absence in 133
Indo-Pacific ecoregions. As of February 2019, the website showed P.
meandrina as present in 91 of the 133 ecoregions, from Madagascar in
the western Indian Ocean to the Pacific coast of Colombia, and from
southern Japan to the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia
(Fig. 2, Smith 2019b). In addition, we found information confirming P.
meandrina in four ecoregions in the southeastern and eastern Pacific,
including the Austral Islands, the Tuamotu Archipelago, the Marquesas
Islands, and Clipperton Atoll. Therefore, these 95 ecoregions are
considered to be the current, known range of P. meandrina. There is no
evidence of any reduction in its range due to human impacts, thus we
consider its historic and current ranges to be the same (Smith 2019b).
Although P. meandrina is usually more common at depths of 30 m
(98 ft) of depth. For example, in a transect from 8 m (26 ft) to 36 m
(118 ft) depth on Fanning Island in Kiribati surveyed in the early
1970s, colonies of P. meandrina were recorded at 31 m (102 ft) and 34 m
(112 ft). Maximum cover of P. meandrina on the transect was at 10 m (33
ft), where it made up 25 percent of live coral cover. The cover of P.
meandrina may have been even greater at depths 230[deg] longitude and [ap]60[deg] latitude, and includes 95 of the
133 Indo-Pacific ecoregions, giving it a larger range than about two-
thirds Indo-Pacific reef-building coral species. Although P. meandrina
is usually more common at depths of 2 levels have both risen to historically high levels and
continue to do so; (2) the world's second largest GHG emitter, the
United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017; and (3) the
most recent Emissions Gap Report from November 2019 concludes that
globally, current policies are on track to result in global warming of
3.5[deg] C by 2100 (UNEP 2019). Finally, even successful implementation
of the Paris Agreement (i.e., limiting warming to 1.5 [deg]C) would
still result in additional warming, and thus worsening of the current
conditions. Therefore, we conclude that current global regulatory
mechanisms for management of GHG emissions are expected to be
unsuccessful at reducing global climate change-related impacts to Indo-
Pacific reef-building corals, including P. meandrina (Smith 2019a,b).
The 2014 final coral listing rule concluded that national, state,
local, and other regulatory mechanisms in the 68 countries with Indo-
Pacific reef-building corals were generally ineffective at preventing
or sufficiently controlling local threats to these species (NMFS 2014).
Since that time, new coral reef MPAs have been established in the Indo-
Pacific, slightly increasing the total proportion of coral reef
ecosystems protected by MPAs in the region. However, human populations
have also grown in many Indo-Pacific countries during that time, most
likely leading to an increase in local threats since we completed our
analysis in 2014. Thus, we conclude that current regulatory mechanisms
are ineffective at reducing the impacts of local threats to Indo-
Pacific reef-building corals including P. meandrina (Smith 2019a,b).
Threats Conclusion. We consider global climate change-related
threats of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise, and
the local threats of fishing, land-based sources of pollution, coral
disease, predation, and collection and trade, to be the most
significant to the extinction risk of Indo-Pacific reef-building
corals, including P. meandrina, currently and throughout the
foreseeable future. The most important of these threats is ocean
warming. In addition, the interactions of threats with one another
could be significantly worse than any individual threat, especially as
each threat grows. Most threats have already been observed to be
worsening, based on the monitoring results and the scientific
literature. Ocean warming in conjunction with the other threats have
recently resulted in the worst impacts to Indo-Pacific reef-building
corals ever observed. All threats are expected to worsen throughout the
foreseeable future, and to be exacerbated by the inadequacy of existing
regulatory mechanisms (Smith 2019a).
The current susceptibilities, exposures, and subsequent
vulnerabilities of P. meandrina to the threats are described in the SRR
(Smith 2019b) and summarized here. For each threat, vulnerability is a
function of susceptibility and exposure. Based on these vulnerability
ratings, the six worst threats to P. meandrina currently are ocean
warming (high), ocean acidification (high), predation (moderate),
fishing (low to moderate), land-based sources of pollution (low to
moderate), and collection and trade (low to moderate). There is not
enough information to determine P. meandrina's vulnerability to the
interactions of threats. Vulnerabilities of P. meandrina to all threats
are expected to increase throughout the foreseeable future, and to be
exacerbated by the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms (Smith
2019a,b).
Rangewide Extinction Risk Assessment
An extinction risk assessment (ERA) was carried out by a seven
member ERA Team for P. meandrina across its entire range, in accordance
with the ``Guidance on Responding to Petitions and Conducting Status
Reviews under the Endangered Species Act'' (NMFS 2017). The Team used
the information provided in both the GSA and SRR (Smith 2019a,b) to
provide the rangewide quantitative ratings of P. meandrina's
demographic risk, threats, and overall extinction risk under RCP8.5
over the foreseeable future. Draft ratings were conducted in August and
September, 2019, then a Team meeting was held on September 30, 2019, to
discuss the draft ratings and to ensure that all Team members had a
common understanding of the guidance. The final ratings were completed
in October 2019.
Demographic Risk Factors. The demographic risk assessment utilized
the information provided in the SRR (Smith 2019b) on P. meandrina's
four demographic risk factors of distribution, abundance, productivity,
and diversity. ERA Team members were instructed to assign a risk rating
to each of the four demographic risk factors, based on information in
the SRR, on a scale of 1 (low risk) to 3 (high risk), for the
foreseeable future, assuming conditions projected under RCP8.5. Draft
and final ratings were conducted based on the same written information,
resulting in mean ratings of 1.0 to 1.6 for the four demographic
factors (Table 1).
Table 1--ERA Team's Draft and Final Ratings of P. meandrina's
Demographic Risk Factors, Where 1 = Low Risk, 2 = Moderate Risk, and 3 =
High Risk, Under RCP8.5 Over the Foreseeable Future
[Now to 2100; Smith 2019b]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Ratings ( Standard
ERA Team's ratings of demographic risk factors Deviation)
-------------------------
Draft Final
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Distribution.................................. 1.1 (0.38) minus>0.38)
Abundance..................................... 1.6 (0.53) minus>0.53)
Productivity.................................. 1.0 (0.00) minus>0.00)
Diversity..................................... 1.1 (0.38) minus>0.00)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Team rated P. meandrina's distribution as a low risk in both
the draft and final ratings (Table 1). The distribution of P. meandrina
is larger than about two-thirds of Indo-Pacific reef-building coral
species, and includes most coral reefs in the Indo-Pacific. The species
also has a broad depth range, occurring from the surface to at least 34
m (112 ft). There is no evidence of any reduction in its range due to
human impacts, thus its historic and current ranges are considered to
be the same. Although all threats are projected to increase under
RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future P. meandrina's distribution is not
likely to contribute significantly to extinction risk.
The Team rated P. meandrina's abundance as a moderate risk in both
the draft and final ratings (Table 1). In the 10 ecoregions for which
time-series abundance data or information are available, abundance
appears to be decreasing in five ecoregions and stable in five
ecoregions. Because of these declines in abundance that have already
[[Page 40494]]
been observed, and projections of increasing threats under RCP8.5 over
the foreseeable future, P. meandrina's abundance is likely to
contribute significantly to extinction risk.
The Team rated P. meandrina's productivity as the lowest possible
risk in both the draft and final ratings (Table 1). Productivity of P.
meandrina is high due to its high reproductive capacity, broad
dispersal, high recruitment, rapid skeletal growth, and adaptability,
i.e., these characteristics of the species all positively affect
population growth rate. Although all threats are projected to increase
under RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future, P. meandrina's productivity
is not likely to contribute significantly to extinction risk.
The Team rated P. meandrina's diversity as a low risk in both the
draft and final ratings (Table 1). Diversity of P. meandrina is due to
high genotypic and phenotypic diversity, and a large range with very
high habitat heterogeneity. There is no evidence that either
productivity or diversity have been reduced. Although all threats are
projected to increase under RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future, P.
meandrina's diversity is not likely to contribute significantly to
extinction risk.
In conclusion, P. meandrina's demographic factors are indicative of
a robust and resilient species that is better suited for responding to
ongoing and projected threats than most other reef-building coral
species. While abundance has declined in some ecoregions in recent
years, the species' high productivity provides capacity for recovery.
All threats are projected to worsen under RCP8.5 over the foreseeable
future, but P. meandrina's demographic factors moderate its extinction
risk (Smith 2019b).
Threats Evaluation. The threats assessment utilized the information
provided in the GSA and SRR (Smith 2019a,b) on P. meandrina's 10
threats of ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, fishing,
land-based sources of pollution, coral disease, predation, collection
and trade, other threats, and interactions of threats, ERA Team members
were instructed to assign a risk rating to each of the 10 threats,
based on information in the GSA and SRR (Smith 2019a,b), on a scale of
1 (low risk) to 3 (high risk), for the foreseeable future, assuming
conditions projected under RCP8.5. Draft and final ratings were
conducted based on the same written information, resulting in mean
ratings of 0.7 to 2.1 for the 10 threats (Table 2).
Table 2--Mean Results of the 7-Member ERA Team's Draft and Final Ratings
of P. meandrina's Threats, Where 1 = Low Risk, 2 = Moderate Risk, and 3
= High Risk, under RCP8.5 over the Foreseeable Future
[Now to 2100; Smith 2019b]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Ratings ( Standard
ERA Team's ratings of threats Deviation)
-------------------------
Draft Final
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ocean warming................................. 2.1 (0.69) minus>0.38)
Ocean acidification........................... 1.9 (0.90) minus>0.76)
Sea-level rise................................ 1.0 (0.00) minus>0.00)
Fishing....................................... 1.4 (0.53) minus>0.39)
Land-based sources pollution.................. 1.3 (0.49) minus>0.49)
Coral disease................................. 1.3 (0.49) minus>0.49)
Predation..................................... 1.3 (0.49) minus>0.49)
Collection and trade.......................... 1.2 (0.39) minus>0.39)
Other threats................................. 0.7 (0.52) minus>0.52)
Interactions of threats....................... 1.9 (0.69) minus>0.38)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
In both the draft and final ratings, the Team rated ocean warming,
ocean acidification, and interactions of threats as posing moderate
risk to the species (1.7-2.1), while the other seven threats were rated
as posing low risk (0.7-1.4; Table 2). The worst threats to P.
meandrina include those caused by global climate change (ocean warming
and ocean acidification), and the Team unanimously agreed that these
threats stem from the inadequacy of regulatory mechanisms for
greenhouse gas emissions management. Ocean warming and ocean
acidification were rated as posing increased risk (Table 2), because of
observed impacts that are already occurring, but mostly because the
frequency, severity, and magnitude of these threats are likely to
worsen under RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future.
The interactions of threats were also rated as posing increased
risk to P. meandrina in both the draft and final ratings (Table 2).
While there is little information available on the effects of the
interactions of threats on P. meandrina, general information on the
negative effects of interactions of threats on reef-building corals
indicates a large number of negative interactions (Smith 2019a). In
addition, there are likely to be many negative interactions that are
still unknown, and these interactions are likely to become worse under
RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future.
While the other seven threats were all rated as relatively less
severe in both the draft and final ratings (Table 2), at least some of
them can be severe on small spatial scales, and most or all have the
potential to negatively interact with other threats. For example,
fishing, land-based sources of pollution, and predation heavily impact
P. meandrina in portions of its range, and may negatively interact with
one another and other threats.
In conclusion, P. meandrina faces a multitude of growing,
interacting threats that are projected to worsen in the foreseeable
future under RCP8.5. The species' strong demographic factors moderate
all threats, but the gradual worsening of threats is expected to result
in a steady increase in extinction risk under RCP8.5 over the
foreseeable future (Smith 2019b).
Overall Extinction Risk. Guided by the results from their
demographic risk and threats assessments, each ERA Team member
independently applied their professional judgment to rate the overall
extinction risk of P. meandrina across its range as Low, Moderate, or
High, using the definitions provided in the SRR (Smith 2019b). The
extinction risk ratings were made assuming conditions projected under
RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future. In contrast to the demographic risk
and threats ratings, extinction risk was rated using the ``likelihood
point'' method, whereby each Team member had 10 `likelihood points'
that could be distributed among the three extinction risk categories.
The likelihood point method allows expression of uncertainty by Team
members (NMFS 2017). The draft, final, and mean extinction risk ratings
are shown in Table 3 below.
[[Page 40495]]
Table 3--Draft, Final, and Mean Results of the 7-Member ERA Team's
Ratings of P. meandrina's Overall Extinction Risk Under RCP8.5 Over the
Foreseeable Future
[Now to 2100; Smith 2019b]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of Likelihood Points (%)
ERA Team's ratings of extinction --------------------------------------
risk Draft Final Mean
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Low.............................. 33.5 24.5 29 (41.4%)
(47.9%) (35.0%)
Moderate......................... 26.5 39.5 33 (47.1%)
(37.9%) (56.4%)
High............................. 10 (14.3%) 6 (8.6%) 8 (11.4%)
--------------------------------------
Total............................ 70 70
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Low extinction risk category received 33.5 points (47.9
percent) in the draft rating, and 24.5 points (35.0 percent) in the
final rating, for a mean of 29 points (41.4 percent; Table 3). Several
Team members moved likelihood points from Low to Moderate for the final
rating following the September 30, 2019, Team meeting at which the
climate change assumptions in the SRR were emphasized (i.e., assumption
of conditions projected under RCP8.5 from now to 2100). Species at Low
extinction risk have stable or increasing trends in abundance and
productivity with connected, diverse populations, and are not facing
threats that result in declining trends in distribution, abundance,
productivity, or diversity. Currently, P. meandrina has high and stable
productivity and diversity, a very large distribution, very high
abundance, and stable (five ecoregions) or decreasing (five ecoregions)
abundance in the 10 ecoregions for which abundance trend data or
information are available. The species has life history characteristics
that provide resilience to disturbances and a high capacity for
recovery. However, P. meandrina faces multiple threats, the worst of
which are expected to increase under RCP8.5 over the foreseeable
future. Thus, on the one hand, most demographic factors suggest Low
extinction risk of P. meandrina, but on the other hand, recent
declining abundance trends in five of the 10 known ecoregions, as well
as increasing threats under RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future, suggest
higher extinction risk in the foreseeable future.
The Moderate extinction risk category received 26.5 points (37.9
percent) in the draft rating, and 39.5 points (56.4 percent) in the
final rating, for a mean of 33 points (47.1 percent; Table 3). Several
Team members moved likelihood points from Low to Moderate, and one Team
member moved likelihood points from High to Moderate, for the final
rating following the September 30, 2019, Team meeting. Species at
Moderate extinction risk are on a trajectory that puts them at a high
level of extinction risk in the foreseeable future, due to projected
threats or declining trends in distribution, abundance, productivity,
or diversity. While P. meandrina's distribution, productivity, and
diversity are currently strong and stable, recent abundance trends are
declining in half of the ecoregions for which data or information are
available (five of 10 ecoregions). In addition, all threats are
expected to worsen in the foreseeable future, especially the most
important threats to the species. Ocean warming and ocean acidification
are projected to worsen under RCP8.5 over the foreseeable future,
resulting in increased frequency, magnitude, and severity of warming-
induced coral bleaching, reduced coral calcification, and increased
reef erosion. These climate change threats are likely to be exacerbated
by local threats such as fishing and land-based sources of pollution
throughout much of P. meandrina's range.
The High extinction risk category received 10 points (14.3 percent)
in the draft rating, and 6 points (8.6 percent) in the final rating,
for a mean of 8 points (11.4 percent; Table 3). One Team member moved
likelihood points from High to Moderate, for the final rating following
the September 30, 2019, Team meeting in response to clarification
regarding the temporal distinction between High and Moderate extinction
risk (Smith 2019b). Species at High extinction risk are those whose
continued persistence is in question due to weak demographic factors,
or that face clear and present threats such as imminent destruction.
However, P. meandrina has strong demographic factors, with the possible
exception of abundance. Thus, while threats to P. meandrina are
expected to occur over the foreseeable future (now to 2100), impacts so
severe as to place the species at high extinction risk are not expected
in the immediate future (now to 2030), therefore the species is not
considered to be at high risk of extinction.
In conclusion, the information in the GSA (Smith 2019a), the SRR
(Smith 2019b), and the ERA Team's results (Tables 1-3) provide support
for P. meandrina currently being at low risk of extinction throughout
its range, and at low to moderate risk of extinction throughout its
range in the foreseeable future. The ERA was conducted assuming that
conditions projected under RCP8.5 will occur within the range of P.
meandrina over the foreseeable future. The ERA Team's ratings were only
for P. meandrina rangewide, thus the Team did not consider whether any
smaller areas within its range constitute Significant Portions of its
Range (Smith 2019b).
Rangewide Determination
Section 4(b)(1)(A) of the ESA requires that NMFS make listing
determinations based solely on the best scientific and commercial data
available after conducting a review of the status of the species and
taking into account those efforts, if any, being made by any state or
foreign nation, or political subdivisions thereof, to protect and
conserve the species. We have independently reviewed the best available
scientific and commercial information including the petition, public
comments submitted on the 90-day finding (83 FR 47592; September 20,
2018), the GSA (Smith 2019a), the SRR (Smith 2019b), and literature
cited therein and in this finding. In addition, we have consulted with
a large number of species experts and individuals familiar with P.
meandrina (Smith 2019b). This rangewide determination is based on our
interpretation of the status of P. meandrina throughout its range
currently and over foreseeable future (now to 2100).
Pocillopora meandrina can be characterized as a species with strong
[[Page 40496]]
demographic factors facing broad and worsening threats: It has a very
large and stable distribution, very high overall abundance but unknown
overall abundance trend, high and stable productivity, and high and
stable diversity. But it faces multiple global and local threats, all
of which are worsening, and existing regulatory mechanisms are
inadequate to ameliorate the major threats. Based on the same written
information, the ERA Team rated P. meandrina's extinction risk twice,
resulting in 47.9, 37.9, and 14.3 percent, and 35.0, 56.4, and 8.6
percent, in the Low, Moderate, High risk categories, respectively, in
the draft and final ratings (Table 3). Before the final rating, an ERA
Team meeting was held to emphasize that the Team was to assume the
worst-case climate change pathway (RCP8.5, and only RCP8.5) over the
foreseeable future for the extinction risk ratings. As explained in the
Foreseeable Future for P. meandrina section above, we consider it
likely that climate indicator values between now and 2100 will be
within the collective ranges of those projected under RCPs 8.5, 6.0,
and 4.5, and not necessarily limited to the range of conditions
projected by the worst-case pathway RCP8.5. However, all three pathways
lead to worsening conditions in the foreseeable future, and their
impacts on P. meandrina cannot be clearly distinguished from one
another based on the existing data and uncertainties. Thus, we
interpret their final extinction risk rating as representing the worst-
case scenario for P. meandrina.
Although all threats are projected to worsen within P. meandrina's
range over the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b; NMFS 2020a), the
following characteristics of the species moderate its extinction risk,
as documented in the SRR (Smith 2019b): (1) The species' unusually
large geographic distribution (95 ecoregions; SRR, Section 3.2.1),
broad depth distribution (0-34 m; SRR, Section 3.2.2), and wide habitat
breadth (SRR, section 2.4), provide P. meandrina uncommonly high
habitat heterogeneity (SRR, section 3.4), which creates patchiness of
conditions across its range at any given time, thus many portions of
its range are unaffected or lightly affected by any given threat; (2)
its very high abundance (at least several tens of billions of colonies;
SRR, Section 3.2.2), together with high habitat heterogeneity, likely
result in many billions of colonies surviving even the worst
disturbances; (3) even when high mortality occurs, its high
productivity provides the capacity for the affected populations to
recover quickly, as has been documented at sites within several
ecoregions (e.g., on the GBR, at Fagatele Bay in American Samoa, at the
Kahe Power Plant in the main Hawaiian Islands, and at Moorea in the
Society Islands; SRR, Section 3.2.3); (4) likewise, its high
productivity provides the capacity for populations to recover
relatively quickly from disturbances compared to more sensitive reef
coral species, allowing P. meandrina to take over denuded substrates
and to sometimes become more abundant after disturbances than before
them, as has been documented in several ecoregions (SRR, Section 3.3);
(5) it recruits to artificial substrates more readily than most other
Indo-Pacific reef corals, often dominating the coral communities on the
metal, concrete, and PVC surfaces of seawalls, Fish Aggregation
Devices, pipes, and other manmade structures (SRR, Section 3.3); (6) in
some populations that suffered high mortality from warming-induced
bleaching, subsequent warming resulted in much less mortality (e.g.,
west Mexico, SRR, Section 4.1), suggesting acclimatization (i.e.,
surviving colonies became acclimated to the changing conditions) or
adaptation (i.e., relatively heat-resistant progeny of surviving
colonies were naturally selected by the changing conditions) of the
surviving populations; and (7) adaptation may be enhanced by its high
genotypic diversity (i.e., some of its many distinct populations likely
have genotypes that will be naturally selected by the changing
conditions) and high dispersal (i.e., the progeny of naturally selected
genotypes may widely disperse, establishing new populations with
improved fitness; SRR, Sections 3.3 and 3.4).
Taken together, these demographic characteristics of P. meandrina
are expected to substantially moderate the impacts of the worsening
threats over the foreseeable future. While broadly deteriorating
conditions will likely result in a downward trajectory of P.
meandrina's overall abundance in the foreseeable future, the
demographic characteristics summarized above are expected to allow the
species to at least partially recover from many disturbances, thereby
slowing the downward trajectory. Thus, our interpretation of the
information in the GSA (Smith 2019a), SRR (Smith 2019b), and this
finding is that P. meandrina is currently at low risk of extinction
throughout its range. As explained in the Listing Species Under the
Endangered Species Act section of this finding, an ``endangered
species'' is presently at risk of extinction throughout all or a
significant portion of its range. Because P. meandrina is currently at
low risk of extinction throughout its range, it does not meet the
definition of an endangered species, and is thus not warranted for
listing as endangered at this time.
As also explained in the Listing Species Under the Endangered
Species Act section of this finding, a ``threatened species'' is not
currently at risk of extinction, but is likely to become so in the
foreseeable future. Based on the information in the GSA (Smith 2019a),
SRR (Smith 2019b), and this finding, P. meandrina is expected to face
low to moderate extinction risk in the foreseeable future throughout
its range. That is, we expect its extinction risk to increase slightly
from its current low level, to low to moderate in the foreseeable
future, in response to worsening threats. We do not expect extinction
risk to grow rapidly in the foreseeable future, because as described
earlier in this section, P. meandrina has several demographic
characteristics that moderate its extinction risk. As described in the
Rangewide Extinction Risk Assessment section, we interpret the ERA
Team's final extinction risk rating (approximately 35, 56, and 9
percent in the Low, Moderate, High risk categories, respectively, Table
3) as representing the worst-case scenario for P. meandrina, because
the Team assumed the high emissions climate change pathway (RCP8.5, and
only RCP8.5) in the foreseeable future for the extinction risk ratings.
As explained in the Foreseeable Future for P. meandrina section, we
consider it likely that climate indicator values between now and 2100
will be within the collective ranges of those projected by RCP8.5 and
the intermediate emissions pathways RCPs 6.0, and 4.5, rather than
limited to those projected by RCP8.5 alone. Because we expect P.
meandrina to face a low to moderate risk of extinction in the
foreseeable future throughout its range, it does not meet the
definition of a threatened species, and is thus not warranted for
listing as threatened at this time.
The definitions of both ``threatened'' and ``endangered'' in the
ESA contain the phrase ``significant portion of its range'' (SPR),
referring to an area smaller than the entire range of the species which
must be considered when evaluating a species' risk of extinction. Under
the final SPR Policy announced in July 2014, should we find that the
species is of low extinction risk throughout its range and not
warranted for listing, as we have for P. meandrina, then we must go on
to consider whether the species may have a higher risk of
[[Page 40497]]
extinction in a significant portion of its range (79 FR 37577; July 1,
2014). If the species within the SPR meets the definition of threatened
or endangered, then the species should be listed throughout its range
based on the status within that SPR. The following sections provide the
SPR analysis and determinations for P. meandrina.
SPR Analysis
The SPR analysis for P. meandrina consists of two steps: (1)
Identification of any portions of its range that are significant, and
thus qualify as SPRs; and (2) assessment of the extinction risk of each
SPR. This SPR analysis is based on the SPR policy in light of recent
court decisions, as explained below. In two recent District Court cases
challenging listing decisions made by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service, the definition of ``significant'' in the SPR Policy was
invalidated. The courts held that the threshold component of the
definition was ``impermissible,'' because it set too high a standard.
Specifically, the courts held that under the threshold in the policy, a
species would never be listed based on the status of the portion,
because in order for a portion to meet the threshold, the species would
be threatened or endangered rangewide. Center for Biological Diversity,
et al. v. Jewell, 248 F. Supp. 3d 946, 958 (D. Ariz. 2017); Desert
Survivors v. DOI 321 F. Supp. 3d. 1011 (N.D. Cal., 2018). Accordingly,
we do not rely on our definition in the policy, but instead our
analysis independently construes and applies a biological significance
standard, drawing from the demographic factors for P. meandrina
described in the SRR (i.e., distribution, abundance, productivity, and
diversity) as they apply to each SPR. That is, each P. meandrina SPR is
identified based on its significance to the viability of the species,
in terms of that SPR's distribution, abundance, productivity, and
diversity.
Identification of the Four SPRs
The first step of the SPR analysis is to identify any SPRs. We
determined that several portions of P. meandrina's range are
significant to the viability of the species, in terms of each SPR's
demographic factors (distribution, abundance, productivity, and
diversity). The range of this species encompasses 95 ecoregions spread
across the Indo-Pacific from the western Indian Ocean to the eastern
Pacific Ocean, including the western Indian Ocean (Ecoregions #1-10),
the western Pacific Ocean (Ecoregions #11-68), the central Pacific
Ocean (Ecoregions #69-87), and the eastern Pacific Ocean (Ecoregions
#88-95; NMFS 2020b, Map 1). Based on the information in the SRR (Smith
2019b) and NMFS (2020b), which is the best currently available
information on the distribution of P. meandrina, we identified four
SPRs: (1) SPR A, the 68 ecoregions within the western Indian and
western Pacific areas (NMFS 2020b, Map 2); (2) SPR B, the 27 ecoregions
within the central Pacific and eastern Pacific areas (NMFS 2020, Map
3); (3) SPR C, the 58 ecoregions within the western Pacific area (NMFS
2020b, Map 4); and (4) SPR D, the 19 ecoregions within the central
Pacific area (NMFS 2020b, Map 5). As shown on the maps (NMFS 2020b),
SPR A encompasses SPR C, and SPR B encompasses SPR D. Rationales for
why each of these four areas qualify as an SPR are provided below.
Other portions of P. meandrina's range were considered, but found not
to qualify as SPRs.
SPR A qualifies as an SPR because it is significant to the
viability of P. meandrina, based on the population's distribution and
diversity. SPR A's distribution consists of 68 ecoregions (#1-68), or
over 70 percent of P. meandrina's ecoregions (68/95 ecoregions), and
approximately 85 percent of P. meandrina's coral reef area (Table 4).
The population's ecoregions extend from the western edge of the
species' range in the western Indian Ocean to the central western
portion of its range in the Pacific Ocean (NMFS 2020b). Because SPR A's
distribution covers over 70 percent of the species' ecoregions and
approximately 85 percent of its coral reef area (NMFS 2020b), SPR A
includes approximately 70 to 85 percent of P. meandrina's total
abundance. Distribution and abundance strongly influence a population's
productivity and diversity (see SRR, Sections 3.3 and 3.4), thus SPR A
likely contains approximately 70 to 85 percent of P. meandrina's total
productivity and diversity. Since SPR A includes most of P. meandrina's
distribution, abundance, productivity, and diversity, the species would
not be viable in the absence of this population. Therefore, SPR A is
significant to the viability of P. meandrina and qualifies as an SPR.
SPR B qualifies as an SPR because it is significant to the
viability of P. meandrina, based on the population's distribution,
abundance, and productivity. SPR B's distribution consists of 27
ecoregions (#69-95), or approximately 30 percent of P. meandrina's
ecoregions (27/95 ecoregions) and approximately 15 percent of its coral
reef area (Table 4). The population's ecoregions extend from the
central eastern portion of its range to the eastern fringe of its range
in the Pacific Ocean (NMFS 2020b). SPR B's distribution covers less
than one-third of the species' ecoregions, and an even lower proportion
of its coral reef area. However, the western portion of the population
(i.e., Ecoregions #69-87) connects the eastern Pacific ecoregions (#88-
95) with the rest of the species (i.e., Ecoregions #1-68). In addition,
the abundance of this population is important because all ecoregions
where P. meandrina is dominant occur within this population (NMFS
2020b). Distribution and abundance strongly influence a population's
productivity and diversity (see SRR, Sections 3.3 and 3.4), thus SPR B
likely contains approximately 15 to 30 percent of P. meandrina's total
productivity and diversity. Even though SPR B represents less than one-
third of P. meandrina's ecoregions, the following characteristics of
the population are especially valuable for maintaining the species'
viability as threats worsen throughout the 21st century: (1) It
contains all ecoregions where P. meandrina is dominant; (2) it provides
a link to between the species' isolated ecoregions in the eastern
Pacific to the bulk of its ecoregions in the western Pacific; and (3)
it contains a high proportion of islands and atolls with small or no
human populations (NMFS 2020b) where local threats are likely to be
relatively low in the foreseeable future, and thus may provide refuges
for maintaining the species' resilience as conditions deteriorate.
Therefore, SPR B is significant to the viability of P. meandrina and
qualifies as an SPR.
SPR C qualifies as an SPR because it is significant to the
viability of P. meandrina, based on the population's distribution and
diversity. SPR C's distribution consists of 58 ecoregions (#11-68), or
approximately 60 percent of P. meandrina's ecoregions (58/95
ecoregions) and approximately 76 percent of its coral reef area (Table
4). The population's ecoregions all occur within the central western
portion of its range in the Pacific Ocean. SPR C includes a high
proportion of P. meandrina's coral reef area (76 percent) because it
encompasses the entire Coral Reef Triangle, which has the highest
density of coral reefs in the world (NMFS 2020b). In addition, SPR C
connects the western Indian Ocean ecoregions (#1-10) with the rest of
the species' ecoregions to the east (i.e., Ecoregions #69-95).
Distribution and abundance strongly influence a population's
productivity and diversity (see SRR, Sections 3.3 and 3.4), thus SPR C
likely contains approximately 60
[[Page 40498]]
to 76 percent of P. meandrina's total productivity and diversity. Since
SPR C includes the large majority of P. meandrina's distribution,
abundance, productivity, and diversity, the species would not be viable
in the absence of this population. Therefore, SPR C is significant to
the viability of P. meandrina and qualifies as an SPR.
SPR D qualifies as an SPR because it is significant to the
viability of P. meandrina, based on the population's distribution,
abundance, and productivity. SPR D's distribution consists of 19
ecoregions (#69-87), representing only 20 percent of P. meandrina's
ecoregions (19/95 ecoregions) and approximately 14 percent of its coral
reef area (Table 4). The population's ecoregions are located in the
central eastern portion of its range in the Pacific Ocean (NMFS 2020b).
While SPR D's distribution covers only one-fifth of the species'
ecoregions, this population connects the eastern Pacific ecoregions
(#88-95) with the rest of the species (i.e., Ecoregions #1-68). In
addition, the abundance of this population is important because all
ecoregions where P. meandrina is dominant occur within this population
(NMFS 2020b). Distribution and abundance strongly influence a
population's productivity and diversity (see SRR, Sections 3.3 and
3.4), thus SPR D likely contains approximately 14 to 20 percent of P.
meandrina's total productivity and diversity. Even though SPR D
represents less than one-quarter of P. meandrina's ecoregions, the
following characteristics of the population are especially valuable for
maintaining the species' viability as threats worsen throughout the
21st century: (1) It contains all ecoregions where P. meandrina is
dominant; (2) it provides a link to between the species' isolated
ecoregions in the eastern Pacific to the bulk of its ecoregions in the
western Pacific; and (3) it contains a high proportion of islands and
atolls with small or no human populations (NMFS 2020b) where local
threats are likely to be relatively low in the foreseeable future, and
thus may provide refuges for maintaining the species' resilience as
conditions deteriorate. Therefore, SPR D is significant to the
viability of P. meandrina and qualifies as an SPR.
Aside from SPRs A-D, no other portions of the range of P. meandrina
considered were found to qualify as SPRs, based on the currently
available best information, as presented in the SRR (Smith 2019b) and
NMFS (2020b). The ecoregions on the fringes of the species' range in
the western Indian Ocean (#1-10) and in the eastern Pacific Ocean (#88-
95), are not significant to the viability of P. meandrina because: (1)
Their distributions represent small proportions of the species' range,
and do not connect large portions of the species' range with one
another; (2) their abundances are much smaller than SPRs A-D; (3)
productivity depends on abundance, thus their productivities are likely
relatively low; and (4) diversity depends on distribution, thus their
diversities are likely relatively low. Likewise, other groupings of
ecoregions are not significant to the viability of P. meandrina for the
same reasons, even groups with more ecoregions than SPRs B (27
ecoregions) and D (19 ecoregions) such as those of the Coral Triangle
(#15-42, 28 ecoregions), because they do not possess the unique
characteristics described above for SPRs B and D.
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Extinction Risk Assessments of the Four SPRs
The second step in our SPR analysis was to determine the status of
each SPR with an Extinction Risk Assessment (ERA) similar to the
process described in the Rangewide Extinction Risk Assessment section,
except that the ERA Team was not involved. Instead, based on the
information in the GSA (Smith 2019a), SRR (2019b), and NMFS (2020b),
staff of the NMFS Pacific Islands Regional Office analyzed the
demographic factors and threats for each of the four SPRs to inform its
extinction risk.
SPR A. SPR A's distribution consists of P. meandrina's Ecoregions
#1-68, an area [ap]15,500 km (9,630 mi) wide from the western Indian
Ocean to the western Pacific Ocean, encompassing approximately 197,000
km\2\ of coral reefs. Its range includes some remote areas with small
or no human populations, including most of the Maldives and Seychelles
in the Indian Ocean, and parts of eastern Indonesia, the northern GBR,
and the Kimberley Coast of Australia in the Pacific Ocean, and many
others (Smith 2019b, Fig. 2; NMFS 2020b). As is typical of P.
meandrina, SPR A is more common at depths of =30 m; NMFS 2020b), and wide habitat breadth (SRR,
Section 2.4), provide SPR A high habitat heterogeneity (SRR, section
3.4), which creates patchiness of conditions across its range at any
given time, thus many portions of its range are unaffected or lightly
affected by any given threat; (2) its very high abundance (a few tens
of billions of colonies; NMFS 2020b), together with high habitat
heterogeneity, likely result in many billions of colonies surviving
even the worst disturbances; (3) even when high mortality occurs, its
high productivity provides the capacity for the affected populations to
recover quickly, as has been documented at sites in the GBR (SRR,
Section 3.2.3); (4) likewise, its high productivity provides the
capacity for populations to recover relatively quickly from
disturbances compared to more sensitive reef coral species, allowing
SPR A to take over denuded substrates and to sometimes become more
abundant after disturbances than before them, as has been documented at
sites in the GBR (SRR, Section 3.3); (5) it recruits to artificial
substrates more readily than most other Indo-Pacific reef corals, often
dominating the coral communities on the metal, concrete, and PVC
surfaces of seawalls, Fish Aggregation Devices, pipes, and other
manmade structures (SRR, Section 3.3); (6) in other P. meandrina
populations that suffered high mortality from warming-induced
bleaching, subsequent warming resulted in less mortality (SRR, Section
4.1), suggesting the potential for acclimatization and adaptation in
this population; and (7) adaptation may be enhanced by its high
genotypic diversity (SRR, Section 3.3) and high dispersal (SRR, Section
3.4).
Taken together, these demographic characteristics of SPR A are
expected to substantially moderate the impacts of the worsening threats
over the foreseeable future. While broadly deteriorating conditions
will likely result in a downward trajectory of SPR A's overall
abundance in the foreseeable future, the demographic characteristics
summarized above are expected to allow the population to at least
partially recover from many disturbances, thereby slowing the downward
trajectory. Thus, our interpretation of the information in the GSA
(Smith 2019a), SRR (Smith 2019b), and this finding is that SPR A is
currently at low risk of extinction, and that it will be at low to
moderate risk of extinction in the foreseeable future. Therefore, P.
meandrina is not warranted for listing as endangered or threatened
under the ESA at this time based on its status within SPR A.
SPR B
SPR B can be characterized as a population with strong demographic
factors facing broad and worsening threats: it has a large and stable
distribution, high overall abundance but unknown overall abundance
trend, high and stable productivity, and high and stable diversity
(Table 4). But it faces multiple global and local threats, all of which
are worsening, and existing regulatory mechanisms are inadequate to
ameliorate the threats. As explained in the Foreseeable Future for P.
meandrina section above, we consider it likely that climate indicator
values between now and 2100 will be within the collective ranges of
those projected under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5.
Although all threats are projected to worsen within SPR B's range
over the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b; NMFS 2020a), the following
characteristics of the population moderate its extinction risk,
summarized from information in the SRR (Smith 2019b), NMFS (2020b), and
the SPR B component of the Extinction Risk Assessments of the SPRs
section above: (1) Its large geographic distribution (27 ecoregions,
[ap]35,000 km\2\ of reef area, extensive non-reef and mesophotic
habitats; NMFS 2020b), broad depth distribution (0-34 m; NMFS 2020b),
and wide habitat breadth (SRR, Section 2.4), provide SPR B high habitat
heterogeneity (SRR, section 3.4), which creates patchiness of
conditions across its range at any given time, thus many portions of
its range are unaffected or lightly affected by any given threat; (2)
its high abundance (at least several billion colonies; NMFS 2020b),
together with high habitat heterogeneity, likely result in billions of
colonies surviving even the worst disturbances; (3) even when high
mortality occurs, its high productivity provides the capacity for the
affected populations to recover quickly, as has been documented at
sites within several ecoregions (e.g., at Fagatele Bay in American
Samoa, at the Kahe Power Plant in the main Hawaiian Islands, and at
Moorea in the Society Islands; SRR, Section 3.2.3); (4) likewise, its
high productivity provides the capacity for populations to recover
relatively quickly from disturbances compared to more sensitive reef
coral species, allowing SPR B to take over denuded substrates and to
sometimes become more abundant after disturbances than before them, as
has been documented in some of SPR B's ecoregions (SRR, Section 3.3);
(5) it recruits to artificial substrates more readily than most other
Indo-Pacific reef corals, often dominating the coral communities on the
metal, concrete, and PVC surfaces of seawalls, Fish Aggregation
Devices, pipes, and other manmade structures (SRR, Section 3.3); (6) in
some sub-populations that suffered high mortality from warming-induced
bleaching, subsequent warming resulted in less mortality (e.g., Oahu,
main Hawaiian Islands, SRR, Section 4.1), suggesting acclimatization or
adaptation of the surviving populations; and (7) adaptation may be
enhanced by its high genotypic diversity (SRR,
[[Page 40505]]
Section 3.3) and high dispersal (SRR, Section 3.4).
Taken together, these demographic characteristics of SPR B are
expected to substantially moderate the impacts of the worsening threats
over the foreseeable future. Although SPR B only consists of
approximately 15 percent of the range of P. meandrina, it nevertheless
covers approximately 35,000 km\2\ of reef area (Table 4), as well as
extensive non-reef and mesophotic habitats, spread across the central
and eastern Pacific, thus constituting a large distribution. In
addition, SPR B's distribution includes over 1,000 atolls and islands
with small or no human populations (NMFS 2020b) where local threats are
relatively low. While broadly deteriorating conditions will likely
result in a downward trajectory of SPR B's overall abundance in the
foreseeable future, the demographic characteristics summarized above
are expected to allow the population to at least partially recover from
many disturbances, thereby slowing the downward trajectory. Thus, our
interpretation of the information in the GSA (Smith 2019a), SRR (Smith
2019b), and this finding is that SPR B is currently at low risk of
extinction, and that it will be at low to moderate risk of extinction
in the foreseeable future. Therefore, P. meandrina is not warranted for
listing as endangered or threatened under the ESA at this time based on
its status within SPR B.
SPR C
SPR C can be characterized as a population with strong demographic
factors facing broad and worsening threats: it has a very large and
stable distribution, very high overall abundance but unknown overall
abundance trend, high and stable productivity, and high and stable
diversity (Table 4). But it faces multiple global and local threats,
all of which are worsening, and existing regulatory mechanisms are
inadequate to ameliorate the threats. As explained in the Foreseeable
Future for P. meandrina section above, we consider it likely that
climate indicator values between now and 2100 will be within the
collective ranges of those projected under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5.
Although all threats are projected to worsen within SPR C's range
over the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b; NMFS 2020a), the following
characteristics of the population moderate its extinction risk,
summarized from information in the SRR (Smith 2019b), NMFS (2020b), and
the SPR C component of the Extinction Risk Assessments of the SPRs
section above: (1) Its very large geographic distribution (58
ecoregions, [ap]178,000 km\2\ of reef area; NMFS 2020b), broad depth
distribution (0->=30 m; NMFS 2020b), and wide habitat breadth (SRR,
Section 2.4), provide SPR C high habitat heterogeneity (SRR, section
3.4), which creates patchiness of conditions across its range at any
given time, thus many portions of its range are unaffected or lightly
affected by any given threat; (2) its very high abundance (a few tens
of billions of colonies; NMFS 2020b), together with high habitat
heterogeneity, likely result in many billions of colonies surviving
even the worst disturbances; (3) even when high mortality occurs, its
high productivity provides the capacity for the affected populations to
recover quickly, as has been documented on the GBR (Section 3.2.3); (4)
likewise, its high productivity provides the capacity for populations
to recover relatively quickly from disturbances compared to more
sensitive reef coral species, allowing SPR C to take over denuded
substrates and to sometimes become more abundant after disturbances
than before them, as has been documented on the GBR (SRR, Section 3.3);
(5) it recruits to artificial substrates more readily than most other
Indo-Pacific reef corals, often dominating the coral communities on the
metal, concrete, and PVC surfaces of seawalls, Fish Aggregation
Devices, pipes, and other manmade structures (SRR, Section 3.3); (6) in
other P. meandrina populations that suffered high mortality from
warming-induced bleaching, subsequent warming resulted in less
mortality (SRR, Section 4.1), suggesting the potential for
acclimatization and adaptation in this population; and (7) adaptation
may be enhanced by its high genotypic diversity (SRR, Section 3.3) and
high dispersal (SRR, Section 3.4).
Taken together, these demographic characteristics of SPR C are
expected to substantially moderate the impacts of the worsening threats
over the foreseeable future. While broadly deteriorating conditions
will likely result in a downward trajectory of SPR C's overall
abundance in the foreseeable future, the demographic characteristics
summarized above are expected to allow the population to at least
partially recover from many disturbances, thereby slowing the downward
trajectory. Thus, our interpretation of the information in the GSA
(Smith 2019a), SRR (Smith 2019b), and this finding is that SPR C is
currently at low risk of extinction, and that it will be at low to
moderate risk of extinction in the foreseeable future. Therefore, P.
meandrina is not warranted for listing as endangered or threatened
under the ESA at this time based on its status within SPR C.
SPR D
SPR D can be characterized as a population with strong demographic
factors facing broad and worsening threats: it has a large and stable
distribution, high overall abundance but unknown overall abundance
trend, high and stable productivity, and high and stable diversity
(Table 4). But it faces multiple global and local threats, all of which
are worsening, and existing regulatory mechanisms are inadequate to
ameliorate the threats. As explained in the Foreseeable Future for P.
meandrina section above, we consider it likely that climate indicator
values between now and 2100 will be within the collective ranges of
those projected under RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5.
Although all threats are projected to worsen within SPR D's range
over the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b; NMFS 2020a), the following
characteristics of the population moderate its extinction risk,
summarized from information in the SRR (Smith 2019b), NMFS (2020b), and
the SPR D component of the Extinction Risk Assessments of the SPRs
section above: (1) Its large geographic distribution (19 ecoregions,
[ap]32,000 km\2\ of reef area, extensive non-reef and mesophotic
habitats; NMFS 2020b), broad depth distribution (0-34 m; NMFS 2020b),
and wide habitat breadth (SRR, Section 2.4), provide SPR D high habitat
heterogeneity (SRR, section 3.4), which creates patchiness of
conditions across its range at any given time, thus many portions of
its range are unaffected or lightly affected by any given threat; (2)
its high abundance (at least several billion colonies; NMFS 2020b),
together with high habitat heterogeneity, likely result in billions of
colonies surviving even the worst disturbances; (3) even when high
mortality occurs, its high productivity provides the capacity for the
affected populations to recover quickly, as has been documented at
sites within several ecoregions (e.g., at Fagatele Bay in American
Samoa, at the Kahe Power Plant in the main Hawaiian Islands, and at
Moorea in the Society Islands; SRR, Section 3.2.3); (4) likewise, its
high productivity provides the capacity for populations to recover
relatively quickly from disturbances compared to more sensitive reef
coral species, allowing SPR D to take over denuded substrates and to
sometimes become more abundant after disturbances than before them, as
has been documented in some of SPR D's ecoregions (SRR, Section
[[Page 40506]]
3.3); (5) it recruits to artificial substrates more readily than most
other Indo-Pacific reef corals, often dominating the coral communities
on the metal, concrete, and PVC surfaces of seawalls, Fish Aggregation
Devices, pipes, and other manmade structures (SRR, Section 3.3); (6) in
some sub-populations that suffered high mortality from warming-induced
bleaching, subsequent warming resulted in less mortality (e.g., Oahu,
main Hawaiian Islands, SRR, Section 4.1), suggesting acclimatization or
adaptation of the surviving populations; and (7) adaptation may be
enhanced by its high genotypic diversity (SRR, Section 3.3) and high
dispersal (SRR, Section 3.4).
Taken together, these demographic characteristics of SPR D are
expected to substantially moderate the impacts of the worsening threats
over the foreseeable future. Although SPR D only consists of
approximately 14 percent of the range of P. meandrina, it nevertheless
covers approximately 32,000 km\2\ of reef area (Table 4), as well as
extensive non-reef and mesophotic habitats, spread across the central
Pacific, thus constituting a large distribution. In addition, SPR D's
distribution includes over 1,000 atolls and islands with small or no
human populations (NMFS 2020b) where local threats are relatively low.
While broadly deteriorating conditions will likely result in a downward
trajectory of SPR D's overall abundance in the foreseeable future, the
demographic characteristics summarized above are expected to allow the
population to at least partially recover from many disturbances,
thereby slowing the downward trajectory. Thus, our interpretation of
the information in the GSA (Smith 2019a), SRR (Smith 2019b), and this
finding is that SPR D is currently at low risk of extinction, and that
it will be at low to moderate risk of extinction in the foreseeable
future. Therefore, P. meandrina is not warranted for listing as
endangered or threatened under the ESA at this time based on its status
within SPR D.
This is a final action, and, therefore, we are not soliciting
public comments.
References
A complete list of the references used in this 12-month finding is
available at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/pocillopora-meandrina-coral#conservation-management and upon request (see FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
Authority
The authority for this action is the Endangered Species Act of
1973, as amended (16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.).
Dated: June 29, 2020.
Donna Wieting,
Director, Office of Protected Resources, National Marine Fisheries
Service.
[FR Doc. 2020-14304 Filed 7-2-20; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-P
