Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Endangered Species Status for Bog Buck Moth

Citation86 FR 57104
Record Number2021-21856
Published date14 October 2021
SectionProposed rules
CourtFish And Wildlife Service,Interior Department
Federal Register, Volume 86 Issue 196 (Thursday, October 14, 2021)
[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 196 (Thursday, October 14, 2021)]
                [Proposed Rules]
                [Pages 57104-57122]
                From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
                [FR Doc No: 2021-21856]
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                DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
                Fish and Wildlife Service
                50 CFR Part 17
                [Docket No. FWS-R5-ES-2021-0029; FF09E21000 FXES1111090FEDR 223]
                RIN 1018-BF69
                Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Endangered Species
                Status for Bog Buck Moth
                AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior.
                ACTION: Proposed rule.
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                SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service), propose to
                list the bog buck moth (Hemileuca maia menyanthevora) (=H.iroquois), a
                moth that occurs in Oswego County, New York (NY), and Ontario, Canada,
                as an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as
                amended (Act). After a review of the best available scientific and
                commercial information, we find that listing the species is warranted.
                Accordingly, we propose to list the bog buck moth as an endangered
                species under the Act. If we finalize this rule as proposed, it would
                add this species to the List of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and
                extend the Act's protections to the species. We have determined that
                designation of critical habitat for the bog buck moth is not prudent at
                this time.
                DATES: We will accept comments received or postmarked on or before
                December 13, 2021. Comments submitted electronically using the Federal
                eRulemaking Portal (see ADDRESSES, below) must be received by 11:59
                p.m. Eastern Time on the closing date. We must receive requests for a
                public hearing, in writing, at the address shown in FOR FURTHER
                INFORMATION CONTACT by November 29, 2021.
                ADDRESSES: You may submit comments by one of the following methods:
                 (1) Electronically: Go to the Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov. In the Search box, enter the docket number or RIN
                for this rulemaking (presented above in the document headings). For
                best results, do not copy and paste either number; instead, type the
                docket number or RIN into the Search box using hyphens. Then, click on
                the Search button. On the resulting page, in the panel on the left side
                of the screen, under the Document Type heading, check the Proposed Rule
                box to locate this document. You may submit a comment by clicking on
                ``Comment.''
                [[Page 57105]]
                 (2) By hard copy: Submit by U.S. mail to: Public Comments
                Processing, Attn: FWS-R5-ES-2021-0029, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
                MS: PRB/3W, 5275 Leesburg Pike, Falls Church, VA 22041-3803.
                 We request that you send comments only by the methods described
                above. We will post all comments on http://www.regulations.gov. This
                generally means that we will post any personal information you provide
                us (see Information Requested, below, for more information).
                FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: David A. Stilwell, Field Supervisor,
                U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, New York Field Office, 3817 Luker Road,
                Cortland, NY 13045; telephone 607-753-9334. Persons who use a
                telecommunications device for the deaf (TDD) may call the Federal Relay
                Service at 800-877-8339.
                SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
                Executive Summary
                 Why we need to publish a rule. Under the Act, if we determine that
                a species warrants listing, we are required to promptly publish a
                proposal in the Federal Register, unless doing so is precluded by
                higher-priority actions and expeditious progress is being made to add
                and remove qualified species to or from the List of Endangered and
                Threatened Wildlife and Plants. The Service will make a determination
                on our proposal within 1 year. If there is substantial disagreement
                regarding the sufficiency and accuracy of the available data relevant
                to the proposed listing, we may extend the final determination for not
                more than six months. To the maximum extent prudent and determinable,
                we must designate critical habitat for any species that we determine to
                be an endangered or threatened species under the Act. Listing a species
                as an endangered or threatened species and designation of critical
                habitat can only be completed by issuing a rule.
                 What this document does. We propose to list the bog buck moth as an
                endangered species under the Act.
                 The basis for our action. Under the Act, we may determine that a
                species is an endangered or threatened species because of any of five
                factors: (A) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or
                curtailment of its habitat or range; (B) overutilization for
                commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes; (C)
                disease or predation; (D) the inadequacy of existing regulatory
                mechanisms; or (E) other natural or manmade factors affecting its
                continued existence. We have determined that the bog buck moth is at
                risk of extinction now throughout its range due to a combination of
                factors. Bog buck moth populations undergo boom and bust cycles and are
                highly vulnerable to threats during the bust phase (Factor E). All
                populations are isolated from one another (Factor E). All extant
                populations are experiencing some degree of habitat alteration from
                invasive plant species and habitat succession (Factor A). Flooding may
                drown various life stages of bog buck moths or reduce suitable habitat
                either by directly making it unavailable (under water) or reducing
                survival and growth of bog buckbean, an important food source for the
                bog buck moth larvae (Factor A). Flooding has increased at one New York
                population over the past several years due to increased winter and
                spring precipitation from climate change and high Great Lakes water
                levels (Factor E). Water level management has altered or has the
                potential to alter several bog buck moth sites (Factor A).
                Additionally, the sedentary nature of the bog buck moth means that
                colonization of neighboring fens does not occur naturally, further
                limiting the species' ability to respond to stochastic changes (Factor
                E).
                 Section 4(a)(3) of the Act requires the Secretary of the Interior
                (Secretary) to designate critical habitat concurrent with listing to
                the maximum extent prudent and determinable. We have determined that
                designating critical habitat for the bog buck moth is not prudent
                because the moth co-occurs with another species that is highly
                collected and designating critical habitat for the moth would increase
                the risk of collection for the other species.
                Information Requested
                 We intend that any final action resulting from this proposed rule
                will be based on the best scientific and commercial data available and
                be as accurate and as effective as possible. Therefore, we request
                comments or information from other concerned governmental agencies,
                Native American Tribes, the scientific community, industry, or any
                other interested parties regarding this proposed rule.
                 We particularly seek comments concerning:
                 (1) The bog buck moth's biology, range, and population trends,
                including:
                 (a) Biological or ecological requirements of the species, including
                habitat requirements for feeding, breeding, and sheltering;
                 (b) Genetics and taxonomy;
                 (c) Historical and current range, including distribution patterns;
                 (d) Historical and current population levels, and current and
                projected trends; and
                 (e) Past and ongoing conservation measures for the species, its
                habitat, or both.
                 (2) Factors that may affect the continued existence of the species,
                which may include habitat modification or destruction, overutilization,
                disease, predation, the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms,
                or other natural or manmade factors.
                 (3) Biological, commercial trade, or other relevant data concerning
                any threats (or lack thereof) to this species and existing regulations
                that may be addressing those threats.
                 (4) Additional information concerning the historical and current
                status, range, distribution, and population size of this species,
                including the locations of any additional populations of this species.
                 (5) The reasons why we should or should not designate habitat as
                ``critical habitat'' under section 4 of the Act, including information
                to inform the following factors that the regulations identify as
                reasons why designation of critical habitat may be not prudent:
                 (a) The species is threatened by taking or other human activity and
                identification of critical habitat can be expected to increase the
                degree of such threat to the species;
                 (b) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or
                curtailment of a species' habitat or range is not a threat to the
                species, or threats to the species' habitat stem solely from causes
                that cannot be addressed through management actions resulting from
                consultations under section 7(a)(2) of the Act;
                 (c) Areas within the jurisdiction of the United States provide no
                more than negligible conservation value, if any, for a species
                occurring primarily outside the jurisdiction of the United States; or
                 (d) No areas meet the definition of critical habitat.
                 Please include sufficient information with your submission (such as
                scientific journal articles or other publications) to allow us to
                verify any scientific or commercial information you include.
                 Please note that submissions merely stating support for, or
                opposition to, the action under consideration without providing
                supporting information, although noted, will not be considered in
                making a determination, as section 4(b)(1)(A) of the Act directs that
                determinations as to whether any species is an endangered or a
                threatened species must be made ``solely on the basis of the best
                scientific and commercial data available.''
                [[Page 57106]]
                 You may submit your comments and materials concerning this proposed
                rule by one of the methods listed in ADDRESSES. We request that you
                send comments only by the methods described in ADDRESSES.
                 If you submit information via http://www.regulations.gov, your
                entire submission--including any personal identifying information--will
                be posted on the website. If your submission is made via a hardcopy
                that includes personal identifying information, you may request at the
                top of your document that we withhold this information from public
                review. However, we cannot guarantee that we will be able to do so. We
                will post all hardcopy submissions on http://www.regulations.gov.
                 Comments and materials we receive, as well as supporting
                documentation we used in preparing this proposed rule, will be
                available for public inspection on http://www.regulations.gov.
                 Because we will consider all comments and information we receive
                during the comment period, our final determination may differ from this
                proposal. Based on the new information we receive (and any comments on
                that new information), we may conclude that the species is threatened
                instead of endangered, or we may conclude that the species does not
                warrant listing as either an endangered species or a threatened
                species.
                Public Hearing
                 Section 4(b)(5) of the Act provides for a public hearing on this
                proposal, if requested. Requests must be received by the date specified
                in DATES. Such requests must be sent to the address shown in FOR
                FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT. We will schedule a public hearing on this
                proposal, if requested, and announce the date, time, and place of the
                hearing, as well as how to obtain reasonable accommodations, in the
                Federal Register and in local newspapers at least 15 days before the
                hearing. For the immediate future, we will provide these public
                hearings using webinars that will be announced on the Service's
                website, in addition to the Federal Register. The use of these virtual
                public hearings is consistent with our regulations at 50 CFR
                424.16(c)(3).
                Previous Federal Actions
                 We identified the bog buck moth (Hemileuca sp.) as a Category 2
                candidate species for listing in the November 21, 1991, Annual
                Candidate Notice of Review (56 FR 58804). In the February 28, 1996,
                Annual Candidate Notice of Review (61 FR 7596), we announced our
                discontinuation of the designation of Category 2 species as candidates,
                which removed the species from the candidate list. We finalized our
                decision to discontinue the practice of maintaining a list of Category
                2 species on December 5, 1996 (61 FR 64481).
                 At our discretion, we prioritized a status review for the species
                according to the Service's July 27, 2016, Methodology for Prioritizing
                Status Reviews and Accompanying 12-Month Findings on Petitions for
                Listing Under the Endangered Species Act (81 FR 49248) and added the
                species to the Endangered Species Program's National Listing Workplan
                (Workplan) for Fiscal Year 2021. Based on this process, we are making a
                determination on the bog buck moth's listing status in this proposed
                rule.
                Supporting Documents
                 A species status assessment (SSA) team prepared an SSA report for
                the bog buck moth. The SSA team, composed of Service biologists and a
                New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC)
                biologist, conducted the SSA in consultation with other species
                experts. The SSA report represents a compilation of the best scientific
                and commercial data available concerning the status of the species,
                including the impacts of past, present, and future factors (both
                negative and beneficial) affecting the species. In accordance with our
                joint policy on peer review published in the Federal Register on July
                1, 1994 (59 FR 34270), and our August 22, 2016, memorandum updating and
                clarifying the role of peer review of listing actions under the Act, we
                sought the expert opinions of six appropriate specialists regarding the
                SSA report. We received four responses. In addition, we sent the draft
                SSA report for review to Canadian partners, State partners, and
                scientists with expertise in fen ecology and bog buck moth biology,
                taxonomy, and conservation and received 11 responses.
                I. Proposed Listing Determination
                Background
                 The bog buck moth is a large diurnal moth native to fens
                (groundwater-fed wetland) in Oswego County, NY, and Ontario, Canada. A
                thorough review of the taxonomy, life history, and ecology of the bog
                buck moth is presented in the SSA report (Service 2021, pp. 6-25).
                Taxonomy
                 The bog buck moth is a silk moth (family = Saturniidae) in the buck
                moth genus (Hemileuca). The bog buck moth was first identified as a
                variant of the maia species group within Hemileuca in 1977 by John
                Cryan and Robert Dirig from four sites (two populations) along the
                southeast shore of Lake Ontario in Oswego County, NY, but was not
                formally named at that time (Legge et al. 1996, p. 86; Pryor 1998, p.
                126; Cryan and Dirig 2020, p. 3). Four additional sites (two
                populations) were discovered in 1977 in eastern Ontario (Committee on
                the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada [COSEWIC] 2009, p. 7).
                Multiple common names have been used since then (e.g., bogbean
                buckmoth, Cryan's buckmoth, fen buck moth).
                 For many years, the bog buck moth's taxonomic status has been
                confusing and uncertain. The bog buck moth was classified as part of
                the Hemileuca maia complex, which is a broadly distributed group of
                closely related taxa including H. maia, H. lucina, H. nevadensis, among
                others (Tuskes et al. 1996, p. 111). Tuskes et al. (1996, pp. 120-121)
                further refined the description of populations of buck moths in the
                Great Lakes region, including the bog buck moth, as the H. maia complex
                of Great Lakes Region Populations. Kruse (1998, p. 109) included H.
                maia and H. nevadensis as part of the Great Lakes complex; however,
                using genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), Dupuis et al.
                (2018, p. 6) and Dupuis et al. (2020, p. 3) show that H. nevadensis is
                restricted to the west. The Annotated Taxonomic Checklist of the
                Lepidoptera of North America (Pohl et al. 2016, p. 735) included the
                Great Lakes populations of buck moths as part of H. maia (based on
                Tuskes et al. 1996), pending species-level taxonomic classification.
                 Recently, Dupuis et al. (2018, pp. 5-7) and Dupuis et al. (2020,
                pp. 2-3) used SNPs and found unambiguous results supporting the
                conclusion that both Ontario and Oswego County, NY, populations are
                part of the bog buck moth lineage that is divergent from Hemileuca
                lucina, H. peigleri, H. slosseri, and all other H. maia. They also
                found clear differentiation between the group formed by the Ontario and
                Oswego County, NY, populations and the group formed by Wisconsin and
                Michigan populations (Dupuis et al. 2020, p. 3).
                 In 2020, Pavulaan (2020, entire) was first to formally describe the
                bog buck moth as Hemileuca maia menyanthevora and stated that it may
                actually represent a full species. Pavulaan (2020, pp. 8-14) considered
                host plant use and morphology for the designation and included the
                Oswego County, NY, Marquette and Ozaukee County, WI, and Ontario fens
                as part of the range. All specimens that Pavulaan used for describing
                morphology were
                [[Page 57107]]
                from one location in Oswego County, NY, and he relied on host plant use
                discussed in Kruse (1998, entire) for inclusion of the two Wisconsin
                sites (Pavulaan pers. comm., 2020). Subsequently, Cryan and Dirig
                (2020, pp. 26-31) named the bog buck moth as H. iroquois and included
                only the Oswego County, NY, and Ontario populations in the designation.
                Official scientific naming follows the rule of publication priority
                under the International Code of Zoological Nomenclature; therefore, the
                official name of the bog buck moth is H. maia menyanthevora with the
                junior synonym of H. iroquois. We conclude that the bog buck moth is a
                valid taxon for consideration for listing under the Act.
                 Based upon the strong evidence provided by Dupuis et al. (2018,
                entire and 2020, entire), we consider the current range of Hemileuca
                maia menyanthevora as Oswego County, NY, and Ontario, Canada. The
                historical range also included Jefferson County, NY (see below). We
                find this genetic evidence documented by Dupuis et al. markedly more
                persuasive than the host plant information that Pavulaan (2020, entire;
                pers. comm., 2020) relied upon when he included the Wisconsin sites in
                his designation without specimens from those sites. The Oswego County,
                NY, and Ontario range is consistent with the range described when the
                Service originally considered the bog buck moth (Hemileuca sp.) as a
                Category 2 Candidate in 1991 (56 FR 58804, November 21, 1991). It is
                also consistent with the range described by NatureServe (2020, pp. 1-
                4), COSEWIC (2009, pp. 5, 7), and Cryan and Dirig (2020, entire).
                Physical Description, Life History, and Range
                 Bog buck moth adults have black bodies and black/gray translucent
                wings with wide, white wing bands and an eyespot (COSEWIC 2009, p. 5;
                NatureServe 2015, p. 4). Bog buck moths have forewing lengths of 22 to
                36 millimeters (mm) (0.9 to 1.4 inches [in]) (Tuskes et al. 1996, p.
                121; Pavulaan 2020, p. 9). Males and females are generally similar in
                appearance with the following exceptions. Similar to all saturniids,
                males have highly branched, feather-like antennae with receptors that
                respond to female pheromones (Tuskes et al. 1996, p. 14), and females
                have simple antennae. Males also have a red-tipped abdomen while
                females do not; males are also slightly smaller than females (COSEWIC
                2009, p. 5). In addition, both male and female adults are larger than
                other Hemileuca maia and have similar highly translucent wings as H.
                lucina. White wing bands are much larger than other H. maia (Cryan and
                Dirig 2020, p. 26; Pavulaan 2020, p. 9).
                 Late instar larvae are dark with reddish orange branched urticating
                (stinging) spines dorsally, and a reddish-brown head capsule and
                prolegs (COSEWIC 2009, p. 6). Initially egg rings are light green
                (Cryan and Dirig 2020, p. 26) and fade to light brown or tan (Sime,
                pers. comm.). Mature larvae are usually predominantly black with small
                white dots and lack yellow markings compared to other Hemileuca maia
                (COSEWIC 2009, p. 6; NatureServe 2015, p. 4; Cryan and Dirig 2020, p.
                26).
                 The bog buck moth is restricted to open, calcareous, low shrub fens
                containing large amounts of Menyanthes trifoliata (COSEWIC 2009, p. 10)
                (referred to herein as bog buckbean, but also known by bogbean or
                buckbean). Fens are classified along a gradient that ranges from rich
                fens to poor fens based on their water chemistry and plant community
                structure. Rich fens receive more mineral-rich groundwater than poor
                fens, which results in higher conductivity, pH, and calcium and
                magnesium ion concentrations (Vitt and Chee 1990, p. 97). The sites in
                New York are considered medium fens (New York Natural Heritage Program
                [NYNHP] 2020a, p. 3). Medium fens are fed by waters that are moderately
                mineralized with pH values generally ranging from 4.5 to 6.5 (Olivero
                2001, p. 15). Medium fens often occur as a narrow transition zone
                between a stream or lake and either a swamp or an upland community
                (Olivero 2001, p. 15). The dominant species in medium fens are usually
                woolly-fruit sedge (Carex lasiocarpa) and sweetgale (Myrica gale), with
                a variety of characteristic shrubs and herbs generally less than 5
                meters (m) (16.4 feet [ft]) in height (NYNHP 2020b, pp. 5-11). Bog
                rosemary (Andromeda glaucophylla), leatherleaf (Chamaedaphne
                calyculata), cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon), spatulate-leaved sundew
                (Drosera intermedia), three-way sedge (Dulichium arundinaceum var.
                arundinaceum), and green arrow arum (Peltandra virginica) are
                characteristic only of medium fens, compared to any of the other
                calcareous fens found in New York (Olivero 2001, p. 14).
                 In Ontario, the bog buck moth is found in calcareous fens with bog
                buckbean. The fens are either low shrub dominated by sweetgale, bog
                birch (Betula pumila), bog willow (Salix pedicellaris) and other
                willows, but with patches of open fen dominated by sedges and water
                horsetail (Equisetum fluviatile) or primarily open fens dominated by
                sedges such as woolly-fruit sedge (Carex lasiocarpa), smooth sawgrass
                (Cladium mariscoides), and American common reed (Phragmites australis
                ssp. americanus) surrounded by conifer swamp (COSEWIC 2009, p. 10).
                 The life cycle of a bog buck moth is similar to other Hemileuca
                species and generally completed within 1 year (Tuskes et al. 1996, p.
                103). Nonfeeding adults emerge in the fall. Males and females differ in
                flight patterns with males flying large, circular paths and females
                making short, low, direct frequent flights (Pryor 1998, p. 133). Adult
                males fly for longer periods as well, covering the open area of the fen
                for approximately 10 minutes compared to females flying short distances
                lasting a matter of seconds (Pryor 1998, p. 133). After mating, female
                buck moths lay one large cluster of eggs on sturdy stems of a variety
                of plant species. The eggs overwinter until the following spring when
                they hatch into larvae. While early instar larvae rely primarily on the
                host plant bog buckbean (Stanton 2000, p. 2), eggs are never laid on
                these plants as they die back each year rendering them unavailable for
                overwintering. Pupation occurs by mid-July, and the pupal stage lasts
                about 2 months. While not documented in bog buck moth, in other
                Hemileuca species (including H. maia maia), individual pupae may remain
                dormant until the following fall or possibly the fall after that (Cryan
                and Dirig 1977, p. 10; Tuskes et al. 1996, pp. 103, 114).
                 All populations are located within the beds of former glacial Lake
                Iroquois (Cryan and Dirig 2020, p. 27) and Champlain Sea (COSEWIC 2009,
                p. 9). The present distribution may be relict populations as a result
                of a postglacial expansion by Hemileuca from western North America, and
                subsequent isolation in fens and bogs as forests gradually reclaimed
                postglacial wetland habitats (Pryor 1998, p. 138). Glacial retreat left
                suitable habitat in disjointed patches (Gradish and Tonge 2011, p. 6).
                Based on genetic findings, bog buck moth populations may have been more
                historically widespread along the wetlands around Lake Ontario (Dupuis
                et al. 2020, p. 4).
                 While we do not have a full understanding of the historical bog
                buck moth distribution, there are records from three populations in New
                York and two in Ontario, Canada. Currently, there are four populations
                known. In Canada, the White Lake population comprises two sites or
                subpopulations (White Lake North and White Lake South). The Richmond
                Fen population comprises two sites or subpopulations (Richmond
                [[Page 57108]]
                Fen North and Richmond Fen South). In the United States, the Lakeside
                population occurs along the eastern shore of Lake Ontario in Oswego
                County, NY, and comprises five sites or subpopulations (referred to as
                Lakeside 1 to Lakeside 5). To the southwest, the Oswego Inland Site
                population occurs in Oswego County, NY, and is a single site with two
                fen openings with metapopulation dynamics operating at a smaller scale.
                The fifth historically known population located in Jefferson County, NY
                was identified based on specimens collected in the 1950s but the site
                is no longer suitable for the bog buck moth. The bog buck moth is
                sedentary (nonmigratory) and therefore present within suitable habitat
                year-round with small movements of 0.5 kilometers (km) (0.3 miles [mi])
                within suitable habitat described as ``common'' (NatureServe 2015, p.
                5). While bog buck moth populations were previously described as
                individuals separated by areas of unsuitable habitat greater than 2 km
                (1.24 mi) or areas of suitable habitat greater than 10 km (6.2 mi) with
                some infrequent dispersal events at slightly longer distances between
                unsuitable patches (NatureServe 2015, p. 5), movements are now
                described as ``should be capable of flying several to many kilometers,
                but seldom leaves habitat'' NatureServe (2020, p. 5). In NY, some
                movement likely occurs between sites that are close together. Isolation
                of populations is likely increased by the short-lived adult stage (not
                much time for adults to fly far) (COSEWIC 2009, p. 15). In addition,
                they seem to have no inclination or ability to fly long distances.
                Adult females that do make short flights are laden with hundreds of
                eggs.
                 Bog buck moth dispersal events were not observed by Pryor (1998, p.
                138) but he suggested the potential for an adult bog buck moth to
                disperse with strong winds or powered flight if surrounding vegetation
                does not impede them. Three males were captured on sticky traps in
                unsuitable habitat located between the Lakeside 1 and Lakeside 2 sites
                in NY (Stanton 2004, p. 7) supporting some movement outside of suitable
                habitat but well within the 2 km (1.24 mi) discussed above. We conclude
                that most movements are likely to be limited to the highly localized
                fen habitat but that infrequent male dispersal events of a few
                kilometers are possible. In addition, though we would expect most wind
                events to primarily disperse males due to their longer localized
                flights, even less frequent, but possibly longer wind dispersal events
                of either sex may occur.
                 It is unlikely that other bog buck moth populations exist besides
                the ones mentioned above. Fairly extensive but unsuccessful searches
                for bog buck moths have been conducted at other potentially suitable
                wetland habitat in Ontario, and no new sites have been found (COSEWIC
                2009, pp. 9-10). Given the degree of interest by naturalists in these
                natural areas and the diurnal habits of this large distinctive species,
                the probability of undiscovered Ontario bog buck moth populations is
                low (COSEWIC 2009, p. 10).
                 The story is similar in NY. Researchers sought out additional
                populations during years of exploring the bed of former glacial Lake
                Iroquois and its tributaries and outlets, and while they found some
                fens with bog buckbean, they found no additional sites with bog buck
                moths (Cryan and Dirig 2020, pp. 4-5). In addition, researchers have
                visited NY fens for many years and likely would have observed the
                highly conspicuous larvae on bog buckbean or adult male moths, which
                are readily visible due to their lengthy, localized flight pattern, had
                they been present.
                Regulatory and Analytical Framework
                Regulatory Framework
                 Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533) and its implementing
                regulations (50 CFR part 424) set forth the procedures for determining
                whether a species is an ``endangered species'' or a ``threatened
                species.'' The Act defines an endangered species as a species that is
                ``in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of
                its range,'' and a threatened species as a species that is ``likely to
                become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout
                all or a significant portion of its range.'' The Act requires that we
                determine whether any species is an endangered species or a threatened
                species because of any of the following factors:
                 (A) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or
                curtailment of its habitat or range;
                 (B) Overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or
                educational purposes;
                 (C) Disease or predation;
                 (D) The inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or
                 (E) Other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued
                existence.
                 These factors represent broad categories of natural or human-caused
                actions or conditions that could have an effect on a species' continued
                existence. In evaluating these actions and conditions, we look for
                those that may have a negative effect on individuals of the species, as
                well as other actions or conditions that may ameliorate any negative
                effects or may have positive effects.
                 We use the term ``threat'' to refer in general to actions or
                conditions that are known to or are reasonably likely to negatively
                affect individuals of a species. The term ``threat'' includes actions
                or conditions that have a direct impact on individuals (direct
                impacts), as well as those that affect individuals through alteration
                of their habitat or required resources (stressors). The term ``threat''
                may encompass--either together or separately--the source of the action
                or condition or the action or condition itself.
                 However, the mere identification of any threat(s) does not
                necessarily mean that the species meets the statutory definition of an
                ``endangered species'' or a ``threatened species.'' In determining
                whether a species meets either definition, we must evaluate all
                identified threats by considering the expected response by the species,
                and the effects of the threats--in light of those actions and
                conditions that will ameliorate the threats--on an individual,
                population, and species level. We evaluate each threat and its expected
                effects on the species, then analyze the cumulative effect of all the
                threats on the species as a whole. We also consider the cumulative
                effect of the threats in light of those actions and conditions that
                will have positive effects on the species, such as any existing
                regulatory mechanisms or conservation efforts. The Secretary determines
                whether the species meets the definition of an ``endangered species''
                or a ``threatened species'' only after conducting this cumulative
                analysis and describing the expected effect on the species now and in
                the foreseeable future.
                 The Act does not define the term ``foreseeable future,'' which
                appears in the statutory definition of ``threatened species.'' Our
                implementing regulations at 50 CFR 424.11(d) set forth a framework for
                evaluating the foreseeable future on a case-by-case basis. The term
                ``foreseeable future'' extends only so far into the future as the
                Service can reasonably determine that both the future threats and the
                species' responses to those threats are likely. In other words, the
                foreseeable future is the period of time in which we can make reliable
                predictions. ``Reliable'' does not mean ``certain''; it means
                sufficient to provide a reasonable degree of confidence in the
                prediction. Thus, a prediction is reliable if it is reasonable to
                depend on it when making decisions.
                 It is not always possible or necessary to define foreseeable future
                as a
                [[Page 57109]]
                particular number of years. Analysis of the foreseeable future uses the
                best scientific and commercial data available and should consider the
                timeframes applicable to the relevant threats and to the species'
                likely responses to those threats in view of its life-history
                characteristics. Data that are typically relevant to assessing the
                species' biological response include species-specific factors such as
                lifespan, reproductive rates or productivity, certain behaviors, and
                other demographic factors.
                Analytical Framework
                 The SSA report documents the results of our comprehensive
                biological review of the best scientific and commercial data regarding
                the status of the species, including an assessment of the potential
                threats to the species. The SSA report does not represent a decision by
                the Service on whether the species should be proposed for listing as an
                endangered or threatened species under the Act. However, it does
                provide the scientific basis that informs our regulatory decisions,
                which involve the further application of standards within the Act and
                its implementing regulations and policies. The following is a summary
                of the key results and conclusions from the SSA report; the full SSA
                report can be found at Docket FWS-R5-ES-2021-0029 on http://www.regulations.gov.
                 To assess bog buck moth viability, we used the three conservation
                biology principles of resiliency, redundancy, and representation
                (Shaffer and Stein 2000, pp. 306-310). Briefly, resiliency supports the
                ability of populations to withstand environmental and demographic
                stochasticity (e.g., wet or dry, warm or cold years), redundancy
                supports the ability of the species to withstand catastrophic events
                (e.g., drought, large pollution events), and representation supports
                the ability of the species to adapt over time to long-term changes in
                the environment (e.g., climate change). In general, the more resilient
                and redundant a species is and the more representation it has, the more
                likely it is to sustain populations over time, even under changing
                environmental conditions. Using these principles, we identified the
                species' ecological requirements for survival and reproduction at the
                individual, population, and species levels, and described the
                beneficial and risk factors influencing the species' viability.
                 The SSA process can be categorized into three sequential stages.
                During the first stage, we evaluated the individual species' life-
                history needs. The next stage involved an assessment of the historical
                and current condition of the species' demographics and habitat
                characteristics, including an explanation of how the species arrived at
                its current condition. The final stage of the SSA involved making
                predictions about the species' responses to positive and negative
                environmental and anthropogenic influences. Throughout all of these
                stages, we used the best available information to characterize
                viability as the ability of a species to sustain populations in the
                wild over time. We use this information to inform our regulatory
                decision.
                Summary of Biological Status and Threats
                 In this discussion, we review the biological condition of the
                species and its resources, and the threats that influence the species'
                current and future condition, in order to assess the species' overall
                viability and the risks to that viability.
                 We note that, by using the SSA framework to guide our analysis of
                the scientific information documented in the SSA report, we have not
                only analyzed individual effects on the species, but we have also
                analyzed their potential cumulative effects. We incorporate the
                cumulative effects into our SSA analysis when we characterize the
                current and future condition of the species. To assess the current and
                future condition of the species, we undertake an iterative analysis
                that encompasses and incorporates the threats individually and then
                accumulates and evaluates the effects of all the factors that may be
                influencing the species, including threats and conservation efforts.
                Because the SSA framework considers not just the presence of the
                factors, but to what degree they collectively influence risk to the
                entire species, our assessment integrates the cumulative effects of the
                factors and replaces a standalone cumulative effects analysis.
                Individual, Subpopulation, and Species Needs
                 The primary requirements for individual bog buck moths include the
                following: Suitable conditions that support fen ecosystems, perennial
                plants with bare sections of sturdy small stems above substrate near
                bog buckbean to provide shelter for the eggs, the presence of bog
                buckbean and other plants to provide shelter and food for the larvae,
                and appropriate flying weather of warm fall days with periods of no
                rain and low winds during the adult life stage.
                 Bog buck moths require medium fens (Olivero 2001, p. 15) with a
                variety of shrubs and herbs, including the bog buckbean, that are
                generally less than 5 m (16.4 ft) in height (NYNHP 2020b, pp. 5-11).
                Bog buck moths also depend on shifting mosaics of early successional
                fen habitat created by regular disturbance (such as periodic flooding)
                (Cryan and Dirig 2020, p. 28). Without disturbances, as with other
                early successional habitats, vegetation succession will occur; however,
                in fens with intact hydrology, this succession occurs very slowly.
                 The bog buck moth is univoltine (single adult flight period). The
                flight period lasts 4 weeks, generally from mid-September to October
                (Pryor 1998, p. 134; Stanton 2000, p. 15; Schmidt, pers. comm., 2020).
                Adults are diurnal (fly during the day) avoiding cooler fall night
                temperatures (Tuskes et al. 1996, p. 12; Pryor 1998, p. 133). Bog buck
                moths fly when temperatures are generally above 68 degrees Fahrenheit
                ([deg] F) (20 degrees Celsius [[deg] C]) and when winds are less than
                24 kilometers per hour (kmph) (15 miles per hour [mph]) (Stanton 1998,
                pp. 19-20-20, 29).
                 Female bog buck moths mate once and deposit eggs (Pryor 1998, p.
                129; Stanton 1998, p. 8) around bare sections of rigid, vertical plant
                stems (Stanton 2000, p. 11). Unlike other Hemileuca species (Tuskes et
                al. 1996, p. 103), bog buck moths do not lay eggs on their primary
                larval host plants (Legge et al. 1996, p. 88; Stanton 2000, pp. 2, 11).
                Eggs overwinter and hatch into larvae in the spring.
                 Bog buck moth larvae require bog buckbean and other host plant
                species. During the early instars, bog buckbean is the primary food
                source for the larvae; however, latter instars will feed on a larger
                variety of host plants. Overall, bog buckbean is essential, but other
                foodplants may be important, particularly in later larval stages.
                Please refer to the SSA report for a list of documented larval host
                plants and oviposition plants (Service 2021, pp. 13-14).
                 Healthy or resilient populations are those that are able to respond
                to and recover from stochastic events (e.g., flooding, storms) and
                normal year-to-year environmental variation (e.g., temperature,
                rainfall). Simply said, healthy populations are those able to sustain
                themselves through good and bad years. For the purpose of the SSA, we
                defined viability as the ability of the species to sustain populations
                in the wild over time. The bog buck moth needs multiple healthy
                (resilient) populations. The more populations, and the wider the
                distribution of those populations (redundancy), the less likely that
                the species as a whole will be negatively impacted if an area of the
                [[Page 57110]]
                species' range is negatively affected by a catastrophic event, and the
                more likely that natural gene flow and ecological processes will be
                maintained (Wolf et al. 2015, pp. 205-206). Species that are well
                distributed across their historical range are less susceptible to the
                risk of extinction as a result of a catastrophic event than species
                confined to smaller areas of their historical range.
                 Furthermore, diverse and widespread populations of bog buck moth
                may contribute to the adaptive diversity (representation) of the
                species if redundant populations are adapting to different conditions.
                In considering what may be important to capture in terms of
                representation for the bog buck moth, we identified two primary means
                of defining bog buck moth diversity: genetic differences and potential
                adaptation to variation in climatic conditions across latitudinal
                gradients.
                 Gene flow is influenced by the degree of connectivity and landscape
                permeability (Lankau et al. 2011, p. 320). Gene flow may be somewhat
                limited among bog buck moth populations due to their rare and patchy
                distributions and sedentary (nonmigratory) behavior. The Inland Oswego
                Site population is genetically distinct from the nearest of the
                Lakeside populations (about 30 km [18.6 mi] away), although there is or
                was likely some limited migration between them (Buckner et al. 2014,
                pp. 510-512). In addition, while an unambiguously close relationship
                was found between the bog buck moth specimens from Ontario and the
                populations in Oswego County, NY, both of these populations formed
                distinct sister clusters (Dupuis et al. 2020, pp. 2-3). Maintaining
                populations in both Canada and New York is important to conserve this
                genetic diversity.
                 The bog buck moth has a fairly narrow distribution; however, Lake
                Ontario influences local climatic conditions, and, at more northern
                latitudes, the Canadian populations experience colder winters. In
                Ottawa, Canada, average monthly temperatures range from 5.4 to 21.6
                [deg]F (-14.8 to -5.8 [deg]C) in January to 60 to 79.7 [deg]F (15.5 to
                26.5 [deg]C) in July, and average yearly snowfall is 88 in (2.23 m). In
                Oswego, NY (directly on Lake Ontario), temperatures range from 18 to 30
                [deg]F (-7.8 to -1.1 [deg]C) in January to 63 to 79 [deg]F (17.2 to
                26.1 [deg]C) in July, an average yearly snowfall is 141 in (3.58 m).
                Adult males have been documented to fly 3 to 5 days earlier at the
                Oswego Inland Site compared to Lakeside 2 and potentially due to the
                climate-tempering effects of Lake Ontario on the Lakeside 2 site
                (Stanton 1998, p. 26). Maintaining populations across historical
                latitudinal and climatic gradients increases the likelihood that the
                species will retain the potential for adaptation over time. Local
                adaptation to temperature, precipitation, host plants, and community
                interactions have all been identified for butterflies and is
                anticipated for the bog buck moth (Aardema et al. 2011, pp. 295-297).
                Risk Factors for the Bog Buck Moth
                 The primary factors currently influencing bog buck moth population
                health are inherent factors (e.g., narrow habitat niche) and several
                external factors resulting in loss or alteration of habitat or directly
                influencing demographic rates. As discussed above, bog buck moths are
                found in medium fens. Medium fens are listed as imperiled or vulnerable
                in New York (NYNHP 2020b, p. 2). Threats to medium fens include
                hydrological change, habitat alteration in the adjacent landscape,
                development, and recreational overuse (NYNHP 2020b, p. 3). Fens are
                especially sensitive to relatively small changes in hydrology (van
                Diggelen et al. 2006, p. 159). Additionally, several medium fens where
                bog buck moths occur in New York are negatively impacted by invasive
                species, such as purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria), reed grass
                (Phragmites australis), and buckthorn (Rhamnus spp.) (NYNHP 2020, p.
                3). In Canada, the most significant threat to the buck moth is habitat
                degradation either due to alteration of water regime within the
                species' habitat or the invasion of habitat by nonnative plant species
                (COSEWIC 2009, p. 18; Environment Canada 2015, p. 7). Several sources
                of habitat alteration identified at bog buck moth sites are discussed
                below. We do not fully understand the cause of declines at bog buck
                moth sites, and so it is likely that additional factors (e.g.,
                predation, disease, pesticides) are important. For comprehensive
                discussion of the primary factors as well as these other likely
                stressors, please refer to the SSA report Chapter 3--Factors
                Influencing Viability (Service 2021, pp. 26-50).
                Change in Water Levels
                 Water level changes can directly kill individuals (e.g., flooding
                of pupae) or result in changes in habitat suitability and availability.
                Flooding can result in reductions in suitable oviposition sites, larval
                food sources and shelter, or pupation sites. Below we will discuss
                water management as it pertains to the Canadian and U.S. populations.
                Water Level Management--Canadian Populations
                 Both White Lake subpopulations are influenced by manipulation of
                the White Lake outlet dam in the town of White Lake (Schmidt, pers.
                comm., 2020), and large fluctuations may cause mortality (COSEWIC 2009,
                p. 18). Alteration of the water regime can be mitigated or avoided
                through appropriate water management policies, actions, and land
                stewardship techniques; however, there were no clear prescriptive
                actions provided (Environment Canada 2015, p. 7). The Strategy for the
                Bogbean Buckmoth in Ontario (Ontario Recovery Strategy) includes
                recovery actions to understand the specific hydrology of Richmond Fen
                wetlands and the White Lake wetlands and to work with stakeholders to
                mitigate impacts from land use change, particularly water level
                manipulation at White Lake (Gradish and Tonge 2011, pp. 12-13). We have
                no information to indicate these actions have been initiated to date,
                and Ontario's 5-year review of the bog buck moth (OMNR 2017, pp. 11-17)
                does not mention anything about these specific actions. However,
                through regulation, Ontario formally designated ``habitat'' for the bog
                buck moth in 2014 (Environment Canada 2015, p. 9). Environment Canada
                then adopted the description of bog buck moth ``habitat'' as ``critical
                habitat'' in the Federal recovery strategy (Environment Canada 2015, p.
                10). The designation includes a list of activities that alter the fen's
                water regime as those likely to destroy critical habitat for the buck
                moth (Environment Canada 2015, p. 17). We will discuss more information
                about Ontario and Canadian laws and regulations in Conservation
                Measures, below.
                Water Level Management--U.S. Populations
                 Water level management resulted in the extirpation of a Jefferson
                County, NY, population in the 1970s (Bonanno and White 2011, p. 9) by
                flooding the fen habitat and creating a freshwater marsh. The site is
                currently being maintained by the New York State Office of Parks,
                Recreation and Historic Preservation as a marsh for flood control,
                septic system management, and New York State-listed endangered black
                tern (Chlidonias niger) habitat (Bonanno, pers. comm., 2020). However,
                it is no longer suitable habitat for the bog bug moth.
                 The Lakeside population is currently influenced by water levels
                associated with management of Lake Ontario through regulation of the
                Moses-
                [[Page 57111]]
                Saunders hydroelectric dam and precipitation events. The St. Lawrence
                River is located at the northeast end of Lake Ontario and is the
                natural outlet for the Great Lakes. Approximately 160 km (100 mi)
                downstream from Lake Ontario are the structures used to control the
                flow from Lake Ontario, most of which is used by the Moses-Saunders
                powerhouses (IJC 2014, p. 4). The International Joint Commission (IJC)
                and its International Lake Ontario--St. Lawrence River Board (Board)
                oversee management of these flows.
                 The Lake Ontario water level changes in response to the difference
                between the supply it receives and its outflow. The supply is
                uncontrolled, and the use of the Moses-Saunders Power Dam to change
                outflow provides some control over Lake Ontario water levels, but there
                are limits to the amount of water that can be released (IJC 2014, p.
                5). Most of the episodic changes in Great Lakes water levels over the
                past century are attributable to corresponding changes in annual
                precipitation (Gronewold and Stow 2014, p. 1084). Prior to the
                construction of the dams on the St. Lawrence River, recorded lake
                levels of Lake Ontario from 1860 to 1960 show a pattern of variation
                with highs and lows captured within each decade or so (Wilcox et al.
                2008, p. 302). The historical range of monthly average water levels was
                more than 1.8 m (6 ft) between low and high levels, and the IJC
                recommended regulating within a narrow 1.2-m (4-ft) target from April
                to November (IJC 2014, p. 8). This has resulted in compressing the
                range of Lake Ontario water levels to 0.7 m (2.3 ft) from 1.5 m (5 ft)
                (Wilcox et al. 2008, p. 302). The IJC (2014, p. 43) found that
                regulation of Lake Ontario has restricted the natural fluctuation of
                its water levels, both in terms of reducing its extremes and year-to-
                year variability.
                 The existing shoreline vegetation of the Great Lakes depends on
                regular fluctuation in water levels (Keddy and Reznicek 1986, p. 35).
                Fluctuating water levels increase the area of shoreline vegetation and
                the diversity of vegetation types and plant species (Keddy and Reznicek
                1986, p. 35). High lake levels periodically eliminate dense-canopy
                emergent plants, and low lake levels allow less competitive understory
                species to grow (Keddy and Reznicek 1986, entire; Wilcox et al. 2008,
                p. 301).
                 Stabilization of Lake Ontario water levels after the construction
                of the Moses-Saunders Power Dam may have subsequently increased cattail
                (Typha spp.) dominance (Rippke et al. 2010, p. 814). Specifically, lack
                of low lake levels shifted the competitive advantage to the taller
                cattails resulting in loss of large expanses of sedge/grass meadows
                (Wilcox et al. 2008, p. 316). The IJC (2014, p. 43) found that the
                compressed lake level range has allowed trees and shrubs to grow closer
                to the water, and cattails and other emergent plants that tolerate
                persistent flooding to expand their range up the shoreline, reducing
                the sedge meadow plants that occurred in between. Increased cattails
                have been documented at Lakeside bog buck moth subpopulations including
                Lakeside 3 and Lakeside 4 (Bonanno, pers. comm., 2020; Sime 2019, p.
                38). These changes in vegetation from Carex spp., sweet-gale, herbs,
                and shrubs to cattail marsh result in overall habitat loss through
                permanent reductions in the amount of suitable oviposition sites,
                larval food sources, and pupal habitat.
                 In addition to changes in vegetation discussed above, water levels
                can directly impact survival of bog buck moth in various life stages.
                The Lakeside population includes sites that have been described as
                physically ``protected wetlands'' located behind sandbars and connected
                to Lake Ontario by intermittent or indirect surface water openings or
                ground water (Vaccaro et al. 2009, p. 1038). Water levels in these
                sites are greatly influenced by precipitation and highly variable
                depending on their unique connection to Lake Ontario (Vaccaro et al.
                2009, p. 1045). Barrier beaches along Lake Ontario restrict flow out of
                the wetlands, causing water levels to rise sharply in response to local
                precipitation events in the ``protected wetlands'' (Vaccaro et al.
                2009, p. 1045). These sharp rises can result in flooding events. Though
                flood events may be related to water level management, they are more
                strongly connected to precipitation events (Gronewold and Stow 2014, p.
                1084) and are further discussed below in the Climate Change section.
                 In addition to the larger scale water level management of Lake
                Ontario, more localized water level management may influence bog buck
                moth sites. Water levels may be influenced by impoundments (human or
                beaver) or roads that restrict flow into or out of the fens.
                Restriction of flow into fens results in drying of sites and increases
                in shrubs. Taller shrubs shade out bog buckbean, reducing optimal
                larval host plants.
                 One example of localized water level influences is the impact of a
                road at the Lakeside 1 and Lakeside 2 sites. Historically connected,
                these two sites became separated due in part to the construction of a
                road in the mid-1950s and impoundment in an adjacent management area
                (Bonanno 2006, p. 8). Fen habitat contracted from 6 to 2 ha (15 to 5
                ac) at the Lakeside 1 site and 32.4 to 24.7 ha (80 to 61 ac) at the
                Lakeside 2 site from 1998 to 2001 (Olivero 2001, p. 10). This was
                corroborated with personal observations by Bonanno (2014, p. 6), who
                found that vegetation in the Lakeside 1 site was succeeding to a black
                spruce-tamarack bog forest with deep sphagnum, taller shrubs, and
                scarce bog buckbean. At the Lakeside 2 site, succession is documented
                to the point where significant habitat restoration is required (Bonanno
                2014, p. 5; 2015, p. 7; 2016, p. 8).
                 Water levels on Lake Ontario have no direct effect on the Oswego
                Inland Site population, and we are unaware of any smaller scale water
                level management at this site; however, temperature, precipitation, and
                evaporation potential will impact hydrology (Stanton 2004, p. 11) (see
                Climate Change, below).
                Change in Vegetation
                 Both invasive species and succession can reduce the amount of
                available suitable oviposition plants and/or larval host plants.
                Invasive species and later successional plants directly compete for
                space and nutrients or shade out bog buckbean. Changes in the quality
                or quantity of bog buckbean is a potential cause of documented declines
                in bog buck moths in New York (Stanton 2004, p. 11).
                 We evaluated the relative threats posed by invasive understory
                species and determined that Typha spp., common reed (Phragmites
                australis), and glossy buckthorn (Frangula alnus) are currently the
                primary species that could affect population-level dynamics of the bog
                buck moth. Common reed is abundant across the northern hemisphere
                including most of the United States and the southern portions of Canada
                (Galowitsch et al. 1999, pp. 739-741). Native fen plants like Myrica
                gale are reduced with the presence of common reed (Richburg et al.
                2001, p. 253).
                 Glossy buckthorn is a shrub of Eurasian origin that is aggressive
                in bogs and fens. Drier portions or less frequently inundated sections
                of wetlands with available hummock surfaces are more readily invaded
                (Berg et al. 2016, p. 1370). Glossy buckthorn displaces or shades out
                native fen plant species (Fiedler and Landis 2012, pp. 41, 44, 51). Bog
                buckbean typically does not grow well in shade (Hewett 1964, p. 730);
                although it can be found in shaded areas of some fens (Helquist, pers.
                comm., 2020). Glossy buckthorn transpiration in mid-summer has been
                shown to lower the water table (Godwin
                [[Page 57112]]
                1943, p. 81) resulting in faster decomposition rates and reduction of
                hummocks in sites (Fiedler and Landis 2012, pp. 41, 44, 51). Sites with
                glossy buckthorn also have lower soil pH, although it is unclear
                whether buckthorn invaded these areas more frequently or created this
                change (Fiedler and Landis 2012, p. 51).
                 As stated above, in Canada, the most significant threat to bog buck
                moth populations includes habitat degradation from cattails, common
                reed, and glossy buckthorn (COSEWIC 2009, p. 18; Gradish and Tonge
                2011, pp. 6-7; Environment Canada 2015, p. 7). These plants occur in or
                adjacent to all Ontario sites and pose an ongoing and future threat of
                habitat reduction. While invasive plant species have been found within
                or near all four sites where the buck moth is known to occur in
                Ontario, the risk posed by these species can be assessed regularly
                through targeted monitoring and, to the extent feasible, invasive plant
                control can be employed as appropriate and necessary to help mitigate
                this threat (Environment Canada 2015, p. 7). Invasive vegetation
                control would likely require long-term management.
                 These species are also documented at the New York sites. For
                example, glossy buckthorn makes up a substantial portion of the shrubby
                component at Lakeside 5 and is present at the Oswego Inland Site
                (Bonanno 2006, p. 7; 2013, p. 2). Cattail had been expanding at the
                Oswego Inland Site, and Bonanno (2013, p. 2) noted the only obvious
                change in potential drivers of vegetation was the large expansion of a
                subdivision along the lakeshore. Narrow-leaved cattail (Typha
                angustifolia) encroachment at the Oswego Inland Site has been managed
                sporadically prior to 2016, and annually from 2016 to 2020 (Helquist,
                pers. comm., 2020). Other invasive species management projects have
                also been undertaken at the Oswego Inland Site and Lakeside 5; however,
                invasive plants remain at these sites. In addition, several clones of
                both the introduced and the native phragmites occur near bog buck moth
                habitat at Lakeside 3 (Bonanno 2004, p. 9).
                 There may be multiple sources of vegetation succession, including
                natural succession from early successional to late successional plant
                species, as well as human-induced or accelerated succession from
                sources such as increased nutrient input (enrichment) and altered
                wetland hydrology (discussed above in Water Level Management). Here we
                provide some additional details about nutrient input.
                 Fens are characterized by a very low supply of nitrogen and
                phosporous (Bedford and Godwin 2003, p. 614), and many fens in New York
                are degraded by altered hydrology or by nitrate moving in ground water,
                by phosphate adsorbed to sediment in runoff, or by altered water
                chemistry caused by development within fen watersheds (Drexler and
                Bedford 2002, p. 278; Bedford and Godwin 2003, p. 617). Drexler and
                Bedford (2002, pp. 276-278) observed that nutrient loading of a fen in
                New York (not a bog buck moth site) resulted in reductions in species
                richness of both vascular plants and bryophytes and increases in
                monotypic stands of bluejoint grass (Calamagrostis canadensis), lake
                sedge (Carex lacustris), hair willow herb (Epilobium hirsutum), and
                broadleaf cattail (Typha latifolia), especially in an area adjacent to
                a farm field. Dense cover reduces fen biodiversity through direct space
                competition, or by reducing seedling growth from decreased available
                light and increased litter layer (Jensen and Meyer 2001, pp. 173-179).
                 Increased nutrient inputs have been documented at both the Lakeside
                and Oswego Inland Site populations (Service 2021, p. 36). The Lakeside
                3 and 4 sites are adjacent to a recreational vehicle (RV) campground
                that may contribute to nutrient enrichment encouraging growth and size
                of the common reed (Phragmites australis). The Lakeside 2 site is also
                subject to surface water inputs from the adjacent pond, the Lakeside 1
                site is surrounded by seasonal camps and an RV campground, and the
                Lakeside 5 site is abutted by a very large RV campground. The Oswego
                Inland Site has seen recent residential development along the lake
                shoreline.
                Parasitoids
                 Parasitoids are small insects whose immature stages develop within
                or attached to their host insects. Parasitoids eventually kill their
                hosts as compared to parasites that typically feed upon hosts without
                killing them. Most saturniids are attacked during the larval stage, and
                late instar larvae often suffer heavy losses (Tuskes et al. 1996, pp.
                25-27). For the bog buck moth, parasitism of egg masses has been
                documented; while larval parasitoids have not been directly observed,
                they are also believed to be the cause of mortality (COSEWIC 2009, p.
                17).
                 Nearly all of the bog buck moth egg masses found at the Lakeside 1
                site since 1996 were parasitized by the native wasp Anastatus furnissi
                (Burks) (Stanton 2000, p. 4) and it is plausible that the wasp was the
                primary mortality factor at other Lakeside subpopulations (Stanton
                2000, p. 13). Wasp parasitism of egg masses has also been documented at
                the Oswego Inland Site (Sime 2019, p. 15). The parasitism rates do not
                appear to be density-dependent as parasitism levels have been
                consistent at the Lakeside and Oswego Inland sites at 25 to 30 percent
                of egg clusters affected/year since 2009, while bog buck moth
                populations have undergone dramatic fluctuations in that time period
                (Sime 2019, p. 15).
                 Larval parasitoids are common in Hemileuca species (Tuskes et al.
                1996, p. 103), Parasitoids can include native and nonnative species,
                such as the native ichneumonid wasp Hyposter fugitivus (Say) and
                tachinid fly Leschenaultia fulvipes (Bigot), and the introduced
                tachinid fly Compsilura concinnata (Meigen) for the control of gypsy
                moths (Lymantria dispar). Although C. concinnata is likely present at
                the Canadian sites, no evidence of parasitism of bog buck moth has been
                reported (Wood, pers. comm., 2020, as cited in COSEWIC 2009, p. 14).
                Parasitism is assumed to be occurring at the Canadian populations
                (COSEWIC 2009, p. 17). Similarly, while not documented at the bog buck
                moth sites in the United States, we find the New York populations are
                likely to be susceptible to larval parasitism from the tachinid fly and
                other parasitoids, and observed boom/bust cycles may be related to such
                parasitism. Bonanno (2016, p. 5) reported the 2016 crash of adult bog
                buck moths at the Oswego Inland Site after abundant larvae of all sizes
                were observed in May and June and suggested looking further into larval
                or pupal parasitoids as a possible cause.
                 If bog buck moths are not killed by predators (e.g., small mammals
                and other invertebrates) or parasitoids, larval behavior may still be
                affected by the presence of predators or parasitoids. Early instar
                larvae tend to stay together and defend themselves while late instar
                larvae disperse, leading to increased subdivision of clusters (Cornell
                et al. 1987, p. 387). At sites with higher predator or parasitoid
                densities, buck moth larvae likely experience slower growth rates,
                prolonged development, and reduced body mass (Stamp and Bowers 1990, p.
                1037) because they would be forced to forage closer to the center of
                plants where it is cooler and where older, lower quality leaves are
                present.
                Climate Change
                 While there are many possible effects to bog buck moths from
                climate change into the future, here we focus on the effects to bog
                buck moths from observed
                [[Page 57113]]
                changes in precipitation and temperature to date.
                 Lake Ontario water levels naturally fluctuate within and among
                years; however, record high water levels have recently occurred,
                resulting in impacts to bog buck moth sites. Between 1951 and 2017, the
                total precipitation with the Great Lakes Basin increased by
                approximately 14 percent with heavy precipitation events increasing by
                35 percent (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program
                2019, entire). After 15 years of below-average water levels on Lake
                Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron, water levels of the upper Great Lakes
                started rising in 2013 and have been well above-average for several
                years (Board 2020, p. 7). With all of the Great Lakes water levels
                above or near record-highs, the increase represented an unprecedented
                volume of water in the Great Lakes system funneled into Lake Ontario
                and out the St. Lawrence River (Board 2020, p. 7) resulting in the
                Lakeside population fens being vulnerable to flooding for an extended
                period of time. Flooding that negatively impacts bog buck moths can be
                described as longer duration flooding, as long-term flooding of bog
                buck moth fens submerges vegetation and makes the site unsuitable for
                most life stages and may directly kill individuals. In contrast,
                periodic flooding that is shorter in duration helps maintain habitat
                suitability. Furthermore, bog buck moth eggs can tolerate short-term
                submersion but are not viable after long-term flooding events (Service
                2021, p. 34).
                 Two high-water events across the entire Great Lakes basin caused by
                above-normal precipitation (January to May 2017 and November 2018
                through May 2019) compounded the already high-water levels in the Great
                Lakes basin (Board 2020, pp. 6-9). These events resulted in long-term
                submersion of bog buck moth eggs and subsequent crashes in adult
                flights at Lakeside 5. In addition to changes in water levels, climate
                change has also brought about changes in temperature. The Ontario
                Ministry of the Environment (2011, p. 1) reported the average
                temperature in Ontario has gone up by as much as 2.5 [deg]F (1.4
                [deg]C) since 1948. Similarly, between 1951 and 2017, the average
                annual temperature in the Great Lakes Region has increased by 2.3
                [deg]F (1.3 [deg]C) (GLISA 2019, entire). We have no detailed studies
                to assess whether observed declines in bog buck moth counts of the U.S.
                populations are related to these increased annual temperatures.
                However, seasonal changes in temperature can influence the form of
                precipitation and snowpack in winter and shifts in phenology. For
                example, the timing of fall flights may be shifting to later in
                September. Bog buck moth monitoring windows have been September 12 to
                26 at the Oswego Inland Site and September 18 to October 1 at the
                Lakeside sites since surveys began, and in recent years there has been
                little or no activity near the beginning of the survey window (Bonanno
                2019, pp. 1-2).
                 Throughout the Great Lakes Basin, average winter minimum and
                maximum temperatures increased from 1960 to 2009 by 3.24 and 1.98
                [deg]F (1.8 and 1.1 [deg]C), respectively (Suriano et al. 2019, pp. 6-
                8). Increased winter temperatures are associated with decreases in
                Great Lakes ice cover and increases in winter precipitation occurring
                as rain. Increased temperatures may also reduce snowpack, impacting bog
                buck moth food sources. During the first half of the 20th century, the
                Great Lakes basin experienced an increase in snowfall; however,
                snowfall has declined through the latter half of the 20th and early
                21st centuries (Baijnath-Rodino et al. 2018, p. 3947). Similarly,
                Suriano et al. (2019, p. 4) found a reduction in snow depth in the
                Great Lakes Basin of approximately 25 percent from 1960 to 2009. Trends
                during this timeframe are variable by subbasin, and there were no
                significant trends for the Lake Ontario subbasin (Suriano et al. 2019,
                p. 5). At a finer scale (1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude
                grids), there were also no significant changes observed for snow depth
                or snowfall for the grid along Lake Ontario that includes the bog buck
                moth sites, but there was a significant increase of the number of
                ablation events (i.e., snow mass loss from melt, sublimation, or
                evaporation) (Suriano et al. 2019, pp. 6-7). These events are
                associated with rapid snow melt and often lead to localized flooding.
                 Snowpack reductions lead to longer periods of frost, earlier
                disappearance of standing water, deeper frost levels and reduced bog
                buckbean biomass (Benoy et al. 2007, p. 505-508). Reduced bog buckbean
                will negatively affect bog buck moth larval growth and survival.
                 Reduced snowpack can also impact bog buck moths directly; however,
                limited research is available on the impacts to bog buck moth
                associated with the presence, depth, and duration of winter snow. The
                presence of a consistent seasonal snowpack can prevent freeze-thaw
                cycles. While bog buck moths overwinter in the egg stage, which is less
                vulnerable to freezing than other life stages, they may also
                periodically overwinter in the pupal stage, which would be vulnerable
                to these cycles. Their egg-clustering habit may decrease the amount of
                egg surface exposed to ambient conditions and reduce the possibility of
                desiccation (Stamp 1980, p. 369). However, eggs that are not covered by
                snowpack are exposed to increased risk of predation.
                 Increased temperatures in winter and early spring may lead to
                earlier egg hatch. As temperatures have increased, many insects have
                been emerging earlier (temperature-induced emergence) (Patterson et al.
                2020, p. 2), resulting in phenological mismatch with host plants. For
                example, Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis) larvae have
                been known to hatch earlier than its host plant, wild blue lupine
                (Lupinus perennis), after unseasonably warm late-winter temperatures
                (Patterson et al. 2020, p. 6). Similar to the Karner blue butterfly,
                bog buck moth early instar larvae rely on specific host plants and are
                at greater risk of impacts from phenological mismatch than species with
                wide host plant usage. Earlier spring hatch followed by subsequent
                spring freezes also increases the risk of mortality of early instar
                larvae.
                 Overall, interacting changes in temperature and precipitation are
                highly influential in terms of flooding or drying out bog buck moth
                sites. There may be additional compounding effects from changes in
                temperature associated with shifts in phenology or reduced snowpack,
                but we lack sufficient information on those potential relationships.
                Conservation Measures
                New York Populations
                 The bog buck moth was listed as endangered by the State of New York
                in 1999 and is protected by Environmental Conservation Law section 11-
                0535 and the New York Code of Rules and Regulations (6 NYCRR Part 182).
                An incidental take permit is required for any proposed project that may
                result in a take of bog buck moths, including, but not limited to,
                actions that may kill or harm individual animals or result in the
                adverse modification, degradation, or destruction of habitat occupied
                by the bog buck moth. Additionally, the bog buck moth is a Species of
                Greatest Conservation Need in the NYSDEC's Comprehensive Wildlife
                Conservation Strategy (NYSDEC 2005, Appendix 5, pp. 14-17; NYSDEC 2015,
                not numbered). NYSDEC has a draft recovery plan for the bog buck moth
                (Bonanno and White 2011, entire) that has not been finalized.
                 All known populations are in conservation ownership and are
                [[Page 57114]]
                protected from effects from human-induced habitat destruction or
                alteration of the wetland itself (e.g., wetland fill associated with
                roads or development). Habitat management has been conducted at a few
                of these sites, but invasive plants and/or vegetation succession have
                reduced the amount of available habitat at most sites and remain an
                ongoing threat. The State of New York provides protection for wetlands
                greater than 12.4 acres in size or of unusual local importance.
                Regulated activities within the wetland or adjacent buffer require
                permits from the NYSDEC. In addition, in accordance with section 404 of
                the Clean Water Act, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has the authority
                to regulate discharge of dredged or fill material into waters of the
                United States, including wetlands. In New York, placing fill into bogs
                and fens is not authorized under the Nationwide Permit Program.
                Canadian Populations
                 The bog buck moth was recommended for listing as endangered by
                COSEWIC in 2009 (COSEWIC 2009, entire), listed as endangered under the
                Ontario Endangered Species Act in 2010, and listed as endangered on
                Schedule 1 of the Species at Risk Act (SARA) in 2012. These listings
                provided the bog buck moth protection from being killed, harmed,
                harassed, captured, or taken in Canada.
                 The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (Ministry)
                published a recovery strategy for the bog buck moth on December 7, 2011
                (Gradish and Tonge 2011, entire). Major actions identified in the plan
                include; improve monitoring standards to the bog buck moth, assess the
                risk posed by invasive species, and evaluate the hydrology of the
                species' habitat. In 2017, the Ministry published a 5-year review of
                progress towards the protection and recovery of the bog buck moth
                (Ministry 2017, pp. 11-17). Initial progress has been made towards
                assessing the risk posed to the bog buck moth by invasive species and,
                where appropriate, implementing invasive species control within and
                adjacent to occupied fen ecosystems.
                 Bog buck moth habitat has generally been afforded protection from
                authorized damage or destruction in Canada since the species was listed
                in Ontario in 2010. Bog buck moth habitat is further protected through
                Ontario habitat regulation and Federal critical habitat protection.
                Section 41(1)(c) of SARA requires that recovery strategies include an
                identification of the species' ``critical habitat,'' to the extent
                possible, as well as examples of activities that are likely to result
                in its destruction (Environment Canada 2015, p. 9). Environment Canada
                (2015, p. 10) adopted the description of the buck moth ``habitat''
                under section 24.1.1.1 of Ontario Regulation 242/08 as ``critical
                habitat'' in the Federal recovery strategy. The area defined under
                Ontario's habitat regulation contains the biophysical attributes
                required by the buck moth to carry out its life processes. To meet
                specific requirements of SARA, the biophysical attributes of critical
                habitat were further detailed in the Federal strategy (Environment
                Canada 2015, p. 11). However, under SARA, specific requirements and
                processes are set out regarding the finalization of protection of
                critical habitat and whether the prohibition against destruction of
                critical habitat is extended to any non-Federal land. Protection of
                critical habitat under SARA was to be assessed following publication of
                the final bog buck moth Federal recovery strategy (Environment Canada
                2015, p. 10). There is no indication that this assessment has occurred
                to date.
                Current Condition
                 Similar to other Hemileuca species, bog buck moth populations (and
                subpopulations) experience boom and bust cycles. Table 1 and Figure 1
                summarize male peak flight counts at four U.S. subpopulations. Three of
                the subpopulations have crashed and not recovered.
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                 In Canada, the status of many of the populations is unknown due to
                a lack of surveys. Of the four sites found in Canada, only two were
                recently surveyed. The subpopulation at Richmond Fen South was visited
                in 2019 where an estimated minimum of 1,500 early instar larvae were
                found in a small portion of core habitat. Another site visit to the
                same location in early July 2020 documented the presence of hundreds of
                mid-instar larvae. At White Lake North, more than 100 adult moths were
                observed in mid-September 2020. Prior to 2020, larval surveys were
                conducted, and larvae were last observed in 2016, with no surveys in
                2017, and larvae were absent in 2018 and 2019. The status of the two
                other subpopulations in Canada (Richmond Fen North and White Lake
                South) is unknown because no surveys have been conducted at those
                sites.
                 It is unlikely that there are other bog buck moth populations
                besides the ones mentioned above. Fairly extensive but unsuccessful
                searches for bog buck moths have been conducted at other potentially
                suitable wetland habitat in Ontario, and no new sites have been found
                (COSEWIC 2009, pp. 9-10). COSEWIC (2009, p. 10) found that given the
                degree of interest by naturalists in these natural areas and the
                diurnal habits of this large distinctive species, the probability of
                undiscovered Ontario buck moth populations is low.
                 The circumstances are similar in New York. Cryan and Dirig (2020,
                pp. 4-5) described several years of exploring the bed of former glacial
                Lake Iroquois and its tributaries and outlets, and while they found
                some fens with bog buckbean, they found no additional sites with bog
                buck moth. In addition, researchers had visited New York fens for many
                years and likely would have observed the highly conspicuous bog
                buckbean larvae or flying adult males had they been present. Bonanno
                and White (2011, p. 10) describe multiple visitations to possible
                habitat by NYNHP and researchers familiar with the bog buck moth
                without locating any individuals.
                 We evaluated the bog buck moth current condition by assessing
                whether there were multiple resilient populations spread across its
                geographical extent to maintain its ecological and genetic diversity
                and withstand catastrophic events (table 2). Information to date
                suggests that bog buck moths are genetically structured across their
                range and we believe the breadth of adaptive diversity can be captured
                by two representative units, Canadian and United States.
                 Table 2--Ecological Requirements for Species-Level Viability
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 3Rs Requisites Metric
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Resiliency (able to withstand Healthy Populations with:
                 stochastic events). populations. Both sexes
                 present.
                 Sufficient
                 survival of all life
                 stages.
                 Sufficient
                 number of bog buck
                 moths to survive
                 bust portion of boom
                 and bust cycles.
                 Stable to
                 increasing trend
                 over last 10 years
                 (10 generations).
                [[Page 57117]]
                
                 Multiple
                 occupied suitable
                 habitat patches
                 within
                 metapopulation.
                 Sufficient
                 habitat size.
                 Sufficient
                 habitat quality.
                 Intact
                 hydrology and
                 ecological
                 processes.
                Representation (to maintain Maintain adaptive Healthy populations
                 evolutionary capacity). diversity. distributed across
                 areas of unique
                 adaptive diversity
                 (e.g., across
                 latitudinal
                 gradients) with
                 sufficient
                 connectivity for
                 periodic genetic
                 exchange.
                Redundancy (to withstand Sufficient Sufficient
                 catastrophic events). distribution of distribution to
                 healthy guard against
                 populations. catastrophic events
                 significantly
                 compromising species
                 adaptive diversity.
                 Sufficient number Adequate number of
                 of healthy healthy populations
                 populations. to buffer against
                 catastrophic losses
                 of adaptive
                 diversity.
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 We lacked specific demographic rates for most locations for most
                years; therefore, we used alternative metrics for assessing population
                resiliency (number of bog buck moth adult males observed, presence of
                bog buck moth at multiple subpopulations) and the condition of the
                supporting habitat (habitat quality) (table 3).
                 Table 3--Metrics for Scoring Bog Buck Moth Population Condition
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Condition Sufficient number Connectivity Suitable habitat
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Unknown.............................. Unknown................ Unknown................ Unknown.
                Extirpated........................... Not applicable......... Not applicable......... Habitat is completely
                 unsuitable due to
                 alteration or loss.
                Presumed Extirpated.................. No moths or any other Not applicable......... Habitat present and can
                 life stage were be suitable or
                 observed during unsuitable given
                 multiple subsequent ``sufficient N''
                 surveys. results.
                Poor................................. Negative trend over No subpopulations or if Insufficient suitable
                 last 10 years. subpopulations are habitat for any of the
                 present each life stages:
                 subpopulation did not Insufficient
                 have at least one >0 bog buckbean ( Relatively
                 limited oviposition
                 sites.
                 Lack of
                 suitable pupation
                 sites.
                Good................................. Neutral or positive Multiple subpopulations Sufficient suitable
                 trend over last 10 and >0 count for each habitat for all life
                 years. subpopulation within stages:
                 the last 5 years. Sufficient bog
                 buckbean (>4% areal
                 coverage).
                 Relatively
                 abundant oviposition
                 sites.
                 Suitable
                 pupation sites.
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 As discussed above, we are aware of five bog buck moth populations,
                two in Canada and three in New York. We are unaware of any changes to
                the distribution in Canada; however, we have information from only two
                of the four subpopulations. In New York, the Jefferson County site was
                converted to a marsh, having been impounded decades ago by beavers,
                then maintained by management for park flooding control, septic
                management, and black tern habitat (Bonanno, pers. obs.). Of the
                Lakeside subpopulations, only the Lakeside 5 site remains extant.
                Lastly, the Oswego Inland Site population was recently presumed to be
                extirpated.
                 Using our ranking methods mentioned above, we find that for all the
                bog buck moth populations in the U.S. Representative Unit, one
                population has been extirpated since the 1970s, one is now presumed
                extirpated, and one is in poor condition (table 4). The Lakeside
                population has experienced multiple sources of habitat loss and
                degradation and remaining buck moths have faced high flood years. While
                these may or may not be the true cause of declines and site-level
                extirpations, they likely contributed to them. The cause of decline and
                the bog buck moth's inability to rebound at the Oswego Inland Site is
                unclear as flooding has not been a concern at this site and seemingly
                suitable habitat remains. Similar declines at sites with apparently
                suitable habitat have been documented for another endangered fen
                species, the Poweshiek skipperling (Oarisma poweshiek), suggesting that
                other factors (e.g., contaminants, climate change, disease, and low
                levels of genetic diversity) may be driving the current distribution
                and losses (Pogue et al. 2019, pp. 383-386).
                 In the Canadian Representative Unit, both populations are in
                unknown/likely good condition. This assessment has a high degree of
                uncertainty given that it is based on current knowledge from half of
                the associated Canadian Representative Unit subpopulations (one out of
                the two subpopulations for each population). Most recently, Richmond
                Fen South had hundreds of mid-instar larvae in early July 2020 with
                ample suitable habitat. Richmond Fen North has not had any recent moth
                or larval surveys, but observations during a site visit in 2015
                suggested that the habitat remains in good condition. At White Lake
                North, more than 100 bog buck moth adults were observed in September
                2020. Prior to that, surveys were based on larvae, with larvae last
                observed in 2016 and none seen in 2018 or 2019. There is no information
                on White Lake South. Although both populations have been described as
                unknown/likely good, invasive species such as cattails, common reed,
                and glossy buckthorn have been identified in the habitat and are likely
                to have a negative effect and reduce the resiliency
                [[Page 57118]]
                of these populations (COSEWIC 2009, p. 18; Gradish and Tonge 2011, pp.
                6-7; Environment Canada 2015, p. 7).
                 Overall, three subpopulations (White Lake North, Richmond Fen
                South, and Lakeside 5) associated with three separate populations are
                known to have remaining bog buck moths. While some genetic diversity
                remains through the current existence of at least one subpopulation
                within each of the representative units, there is no redundancy of
                healthy populations in the U.S. Representative Unit, and there is
                uncertainty about the status of the Canadian Representative Unit.
                 Table 4--Summary of Bog Buck Moth Current Condition
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 3Rs Requisites Metric Current condition
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Resiliency (able to withstand Healthy populations... Populations with:.......... Poor.
                 stochastic events). Both sexes present Of the 5 historically
                 Sufficient known populations:
                 survival of all life 1 extirpated.
                 stages. 1 presumed extirpated.
                 Sufficient number
                 of bog buck moths to
                 survive bust portion of
                 boom and bust cycles.
                 Stable to 1 poor.
                 increasing trend over last 2 unknown/likely good.
                 10 years (10 generations).
                 Multiple occupied
                 suitable habitat patches
                 within metapopulation.
                 Sufficient habitat
                 size
                 Sufficient habitat
                 quality.
                 Intact hydrology
                 and ecological processes.
                Representation (to maintain Maintain adaptive Healthy populations Poor.
                 evolutionary capacity). diversity. distributed across areas There are two
                 of unique adaptive potentially healthy
                 diversity (e.g., across populations in the
                 latitudinal gradients) Canadian
                 with sufficient Representative Unit
                 connectivity for periodic and none in the U.S.
                 genetic exchange. Representative Unit.
                Redundancy (to withstand Sufficient Sufficient distribution to Poor.
                 catastrophic events). distribution of guard against catastrophic See above.
                 healthy populations. events significantly
                 compromising species
                 adaptive diversity.
                 Sufficient number of Adequate number of healthy Poor.
                 healthy populations. populations to buffer See above.
                 against catastrophic
                 losses of adaptive
                 diversity.
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Future Condition
                 As part of the SSA, we developed two future condition scenarios to
                capture the range of uncertainties regarding future threats and the
                projected responses by the bog buck moth. Our scenarios assumed
                increased winter and spring precipitation, increased annual
                temperatures, and either continuation or increases in invasive plant
                species and succession. Because we determined that the current
                condition of the bog buck moth was consistent with an endangered
                species (see Determination section, below), we are not presenting the
                results of the future scenarios in this proposed rule; however, under
                both scenarios the future condition is projected to worsen. Please
                refer to the SSA report (Service 2021, pp. 67-83) for the full analysis
                of future scenarios.
                Determination of Bog Buck Moth's Status
                 Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533) and its implementing
                regulations (50 CFR part 424) set forth the procedures for determining
                whether a species meets the definition of an endangered species or a
                threatened species. The Act defines an endangered species as a species
                ``in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of
                its range,'' and a threatened species as a species ``likely to become
                an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a
                significant portion of its range.'' The Act requires that we determine
                whether a species meets the definition of endangered species or
                threatened species because of any of the following factors: (A) The
                present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its
                habitat or range; (B) Overutilization for commercial, recreational,
                scientific, or educational purposes; (C) Disease or predation; (D) The
                inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or (E) Other natural or
                manmade factors affecting its continued existence.
                Status Throughout All of Its Range
                 After evaluating threats to the species and assessing the
                cumulative effect of the threats under the Act's section 4(a)(1)
                factors, we have determined that the bog buck moth is at risk of
                extinction now throughout its range due to a combination of factors.
                Bog buck moth populations undergo boom and bust cycles and are highly
                vulnerable to stochastic events or threats during the bust phase
                (Factor E). All populations are isolated from one another and cannot
                repopulate extirpated sites (Factor E). We find that past and ongoing
                stressors, including habitat alteration due to water level management,
                vegetative succession and invasive plant species (Factor A), and death
                of individuals due to flooding (Factor E) have caused and are highly
                likely to continue to cause a decline in the species' viability through
                reduction of resilience, redundancy, and representation to such a
                degree that the species is particularly vulnerable to extinction
                presently and is highly likely to become more vulnerable to extinction.
                We do not fully understand the cause of declines at bog buck moth
                sites, and so it is likely that additional factors are important such
                as inherent factors (e.g., narrow habitat niche) (Factor E),
                parasitoids (Factor E), predation (Factor C), disease (Factor C), and
                pesticides (Factor E).
                 Of the three historical U.S. populations, two have been extirpated
                or presumed extirpated. The Jefferson County population was extirpated
                due to habitat conversion in the 1970s. The reason for the extirpation
                of the Inland Oswego County Site population is unclear, as the habitat
                still appears suitable. For the remaining U.S. population, the Lakeside
                population, the overall condition is poor with four of the five sites
                (Lakeside 1-4) presumed extirpated. Lakeside 5 is the last site with a
                confirmed moth
                [[Page 57119]]
                population as of 2019. However, even this site is considered to be in
                poor condition with severe habitat degradation.
                 The Canadian populations comprise two potentially healthy
                populations. However, there is high uncertainty about their status.
                Unlike the New York populations, no standardized transect counts are
                available to assess long-term trends. In addition, we have information
                on just two of the four subpopulations associated with these
                populations. While there are bog buck moths known at two of these
                subpopulations and suitable habitat remains, invasive plant species are
                present at these sites and active management is not underway.
                 All of the extant bog buck moth populations are currently facing a
                multitude of threats including water level changes, succession, and
                invasive species. Additionally, other factors, including parasitoids,
                predation, disease, and pesticides, as well as the species' limited
                dispersal range and small numbers, likely play a role in its decline.
                As studies in the New York population have shown, attempts at managing
                and controlling the spread of invasive plants or woody plants from
                succession in fens have proven to be extremely labor intensive and have
                limited effect. We find that the magnitude and imminence of threats
                facing the bog buck moth place the species in danger of extinction now,
                and therefore we find that threatened status is not appropriate. Thus,
                after assessing the best available information, we determine that the
                bog buck moth is in danger of extinction throughout all of its range.
                Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range
                 Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may
                warrant listing if it is in danger of extinction or likely to become so
                in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of
                its range. We have determined that the bog buck moth is in danger of
                extinction throughout all of its range, and accordingly did not
                undertake an analysis of any significant portion of its range. Because
                the bog buck moth warrants listing as endangered throughout all of its
                range, our determination is consistent with the decision in Center for
                Biological Diversity v. Everson, 2020 WL 437289 (D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020),
                in which the court vacated the aspect of the Final Policy on
                Interpretation of the Phrase ``Significant Portion of Its Range'' in
                the Endangered Species Act's Definitions of ``Endangered Species'' and
                ``Threatened Species'' (79 FR 37578; July 1, 2014) that provided the
                Service does not undertake an analysis of significant portions of a
                species' range if the species warrants listing as threatened throughout
                all of its range.
                Determination of Status
                 Our review of the best available scientific and commercial
                information indicates that the bog buck moth meets the definition of an
                endangered species. Therefore, we propose to list the bog buck moth as
                an endangered species in accordance with sections 3(6) and 4(a)(1) of
                the Act.
                Available Conservation Measures
                 Conservation measures provided to species listed as endangered or
                threatened species under the Act include recognition, recovery actions,
                requirements for Federal protection, and prohibitions against certain
                practices. Recognition through listing results in public awareness, and
                conservation by Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies, private
                organizations, and individuals. The Act encourages cooperation with the
                States and other countries and calls for recovery actions to be carried
                out for listed species. The protection required by Federal agencies and
                the prohibitions against certain activities are discussed, in part,
                below.
                 The primary purpose of the Act is the conservation of endangered
                and threatened species and the ecosystems upon which they depend. The
                ultimate goal of such conservation efforts is the recovery of these
                listed species, so that they no longer need the protective measures of
                the Act. Section 4(f) of the Act calls for the Service to develop and
                implement recovery plans for the conservation of endangered and
                threatened species. The recovery planning process involves the
                identification of actions that are necessary to halt or reverse the
                species' decline by addressing the threats to its survival and
                recovery. The goal of this process is to restore listed species to a
                point where they are secure, self-sustaining, and functioning
                components of their ecosystems.
                 Recovery planning consists of preparing draft and final recovery
                plans, beginning with the development of a recovery outline, and making
                it available to the public within 30 days of a final listing
                determination. The recovery outline guides the immediate implementation
                of urgent recovery actions and describes the process to be used to
                develop a recovery plan. Revisions of the plan may be done to address
                continuing or new threats to the species, as new substantive
                information becomes available. The recovery plan also identifies
                recovery criteria for review of when a species may be ready for
                reclassification from endangered to threatened (``downlisting'') or
                removal from protected status (``delisting''), and methods for
                monitoring recovery progress. Recovery plans also establish a framework
                for agencies to coordinate their recovery efforts and provide estimates
                of the cost of implementing recovery tasks. Recovery teams (composed of
                species experts, Federal and State agencies, nongovernmental
                organizations, and stakeholders) are often established to develop
                recovery plans. When completed, the recovery outline, draft recovery
                plan, and the final recovery plan will be available on our website
                (http://www.fws.gov/endangered), or from our New York Field Office (see
                FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
                 Implementation of recovery actions generally requires the
                participation of a broad range of partners, including other Federal
                agencies, States, Tribes, nongovernmental organizations, businesses,
                and private landowners. Examples of recovery actions include habitat
                restoration (e.g., restoration of native vegetation), research, captive
                propagation and reintroduction, and outreach and education. The
                recovery of many listed species cannot be accomplished solely on
                Federal lands because their range may occur primarily or solely on non-
                Federal lands. To achieve recovery of these species requires
                cooperative conservation efforts on private, State, and Tribal lands.
                 If this species is listed, funding for recovery actions will be
                available from a variety of sources, including Federal budgets, State
                programs, and cost-share grants for non-Federal landowners, the
                academic community, and nongovernmental organizations. In addition,
                pursuant to section 6 of the Act, the State of New York would be
                eligible for Federal funds to implement management actions that promote
                the protection or recovery of the bog buck moth. Section 8(a) of the
                Act (16 U.S.C. 1537(a)) authorizes the provision of limited financial
                assistance for the development and management of programs that the
                Secretary of the Interior determines to be necessary or useful for the
                conservation of endangered or threatened species in foreign countries.
                Sections 8(b) and 8(c) of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1537(b) and (c)) also
                authorize the Secretary to encourage conservation programs for listed
                species found outside the US, and to provide assistance for such
                programs, in the form of personnel and the training of personnel.
                Information on our grant programs that are available to
                [[Page 57120]]
                aid species recovery can be found at: http://www.fws.gov/grants.
                 Although the bog buck moth is only proposed for listing under the
                Act at this time, please let us know if you are interested in
                participating in recovery efforts for this species. Additionally, we
                invite you to submit any new information on this species whenever it
                becomes available and any information you may have for recovery
                planning purposes (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
                 Section 7(a) of the Act requires Federal agencies to evaluate their
                actions with respect to any species that is proposed or listed as an
                endangered or threatened species and with respect to its critical
                habitat, if any is designated. Regulations implementing this
                interagency cooperation provision of the Act are codified at 50 CFR
                part 402. Section 7(a)(4) of the Act requires Federal agencies to
                confer with the Service on any action that is likely to jeopardize the
                continued existence of a species proposed for listing or result in
                destruction or adverse modification of proposed critical habitat. If a
                species is listed subsequently, section 7(a)(2) of the Act requires
                Federal agencies to ensure that activities they authorize, fund, or
                carry out are not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of the
                species or destroy or adversely modify its critical habitat. If a
                Federal action may affect a listed species or its critical habitat, the
                responsible Federal agency must enter into consultation with the
                Service.
                 The Act and its implementing regulations set forth a series of
                general prohibitions and exceptions that apply to endangered wildlife.
                The prohibitions of section 9(a)(1) of the Act, codified at 50 CFR
                17.21, make it illegal for any person subject to the jurisdiction of
                the United States to take (which includes harass, harm, pursue, hunt,
                shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, or collect; or to attempt any of
                these) endangered wildlife within the United States or on the high
                seas. In addition, it is unlawful to import; export; deliver, receive,
                carry, transport, or ship in interstate or foreign commerce in the
                course of commercial activity; or sell or offer for sale in interstate
                or foreign commerce any species listed as an endangered species. It is
                also illegal to possess, sell, deliver, carry, transport, or ship any
                such wildlife that has been taken illegally. Certain exceptions apply
                to employees of the Service, the National Marine Fisheries Service,
                other Federal land management agencies, and State conservation
                agencies.
                 Federal agency actions that may require conference or consultation
                or both as described in the preceding paragraph include management and
                any other landscape-altering activities on lands near bog buck moth
                subpopulations.
                 We may issue permits to carry out otherwise prohibited activities
                involving endangered wildlife under certain circumstances. Regulations
                governing permits are codified at 50 CFR 17.22. With regard to
                endangered wildlife, a permit may be issued for the following purposes:
                for scientific purposes, to enhance the propagation or survival of the
                species, and for incidental take in connection with otherwise lawful
                activities. The statute also contains certain exemptions from the
                prohibitions, which are found in sections 9 and 10 of the Act.
                 It is our policy, as published in the Federal Register on July 1,
                1994 (59 FR 34272), to identify to the maximum extent practicable at
                the time a species is listed, those activities that would or would not
                constitute a violation of section 9 of the Act. The intent of this
                policy is to increase public awareness of the effect of a proposed
                listing on proposed and ongoing activities within the range of the
                species proposed for listing. Based on the best available information,
                the following actions are unlikely to result in a violation of section
                9, if these activities are carried out in accordance with existing
                regulations and permit requirements; this list is not comprehensive:
                Normal recreational hunting, fishing, or boating activities that are
                carried out in accordance with all existing hunting, fishing, and
                boating regulations, and following reasonable practices and standards.
                 Based on the best available information, the following activities
                may potentially result in a violation of section 9 of the Act if they
                are not authorized in accordance with applicable law; this list is not
                comprehensive:
                 (1) Unauthorized collecting, handling, possessing, selling,
                delivering, carrying, or transporting of the bog buck moth, including
                import or export across State lines and international boundaries,
                except for properly documented antique specimens of the taxon at least
                100 years old, as defined by section 10(h)(1) of the Act;
                 (2) Unauthorized modification, removal, or destruction of the
                wetland vegetation, soils, or hydrology in which the bog buck moth is
                known to occur;
                 (3) Unauthorized discharge of chemicals or fill material into any
                wetlands in which the bog buck moth is known to occur; and
                 (4) Unauthorized release of biological control agents that attack
                any life stage of the bog buck moth, including parasitoids, herbicides,
                pesticides, or other chemicals in habitats in which the bog buck moth
                is known to occur.
                 Questions regarding whether specific activities would constitute a
                violation of section 9 of the Act should be directed to the New York
                Ecological Services Field Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT).
                III. Critical Habitat
                Background
                 Critical habitat is defined in section 3 of the Act as:
                 (1) The specific areas within the geographical area occupied by the
                species, at the time it is listed in accordance with the Act, on which
                are found those physical or biological features
                 (a) Essential to the conservation of the species, and
                 (b) Which may require special management considerations or
                protection; and
                 (2) Specific areas outside the geographical area occupied by the
                species at the time it is listed, upon a determination that such areas
                are essential for the conservation of the species.
                 Our regulations at 50 CFR 424.02 define the geographical area
                occupied by the species as an area that may generally be delineated
                around species' occurrences, as determined by the Secretary (i.e.,
                range). Such areas may include those areas used throughout all or part
                of the species' life cycle, even if not used on a regular basis (e.g.,
                migratory corridors, seasonal habitats, and habitats used periodically,
                but not solely by vagrant individuals). Additionally, our regulations
                at 50 CFR 424.02 define the word ``habitat'' as follows: ``For the
                purposes of designating critical habitat only, habitat is the abiotic
                and biotic setting that currently or periodically contains the
                resources and conditions necessary to support one or more life
                processes of a species.''
                 Conservation, as defined under section 3 of the Act, means to use
                and the use of all methods and procedures that are necessary to bring
                an endangered or threatened species to the point at which the measures
                provided pursuant to the Act are no longer necessary. Such methods and
                procedures include, but are not limited to, all activities associated
                with scientific resources management such as research, census, law
                enforcement, habitat acquisition and maintenance,
                [[Page 57121]]
                propagation, live trapping, and transplantation, and, in the
                extraordinary case where population pressures within a given ecosystem
                cannot be otherwise relieved, may include regulated taking.
                 Critical habitat receives protection under section 7 of the Act
                through the requirement that Federal agencies ensure, in consultation
                with the Service, that any action they authorize, fund, or carry out is
                not likely to result in the destruction or adverse modification of
                critical habitat. The designation of critical habitat does not affect
                land ownership or establish a refuge, wilderness, reserve, preserve, or
                other conservation area. Designation also does not allow the government
                or public to access private lands, nor does designation require
                implementation of restoration, recovery, or enhancement measures by
                non-Federal landowners. Where a landowner requests Federal agency
                funding or authorization for an action that may affect a listed species
                or critical habitat, the Federal agency would be required to consult
                with the Service under section 7(a)(2) of the Act. However, even if the
                Service were to conclude that the proposed activity would result in
                destruction or adverse modification of the critical habitat, the
                Federal action agency and the landowner are not required to abandon the
                proposed activity, or to restore or recover the species; instead, they
                must implement ``reasonable and prudent alternatives'' to avoid
                destruction or adverse modification of critical habitat.
                 Section 4 of the Act requires that we designate critical habitat on
                the basis of the best scientific data available. Further, our Policy on
                Information Standards Under the Endangered Species Act (published in
                the Federal Register on July 1, 1994 (59 FR 34271)), the Information
                Quality Act (section 515 of the Treasury and General Government
                Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Pub. L. 106-554; H.R. 5658)),
                and our associated Information Quality Guidelines provide criteria,
                establish procedures, and provide guidance to ensure that our decisions
                are based on the best scientific data available. They require our
                biologists, to the extent consistent with the Act and with the use of
                the best scientific data available, to use primary and original sources
                of information as the basis for recommendations to designate critical
                habitat.
                Prudency Determination
                 Section 4(a)(3) of the Act, as amended, and implementing
                regulations (50 CFR 424.12) require that, to the maximum extent prudent
                and determinable, the Secretary shall designate critical habitat at the
                time the species is determined to be an endangered or threatened
                species. Our regulations (50 CFR 424.12(a)(1)) state that the Secretary
                may, but is not required to, determine that a designation would not be
                prudent in the following circumstances:
                 (i) The species is threatened by taking or other human activity and
                identification of critical habitat can be expected to increase the
                degree of such threat to the species;
                 (ii) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or
                curtailment of a species' habitat or range is not a threat to the
                species, or threats to the species' habitat stem solely from causes
                that cannot be addressed through management actions resulting from
                consultations under section 7(a)(2) of the Act;
                 (iii) Areas within the jurisdiction of the United States provide no
                more than negligible conservation value, if any, for a species
                occurring primarily outside the jurisdiction of the United States;
                 (iv) No areas meet the definition of critical habitat; or
                 (v) The Secretary otherwise determines that designation of critical
                habitat would not be prudent based on the best scientific data
                available.
                 We find that designating critical habitat for the bog buck moth is
                not prudent based on the fifth category. Within the New York
                populations, the bog buck moth co-occurs with another federally listed
                species that was listed, in part, due to collection pressure, which has
                not abated and has been documented recently in New York. Designation of
                critical habitat requires the publication of maps and a narrative
                description of specific critical habitat areas in the Federal Register.
                The degree of detail necessary to properly designate critical habitat
                for the bog buck moth is considerably greater than the general
                descriptions of location provided in this proposal to list the bog buck
                moth as an endangered species. We find that the publication of maps and
                descriptions outlining the locations of bog buck moth would further
                facilitate unauthorized collection and trade of the co-occurring
                species, by providing heretofore unavailable precise location
                information. As such, we have determined that the increased collection
                risk to the co-occurring species outweighs the benefits that would be
                afforded to the bog buck moth from the designation of critical habitat.
                 In conclusion, we find that the designation of critical habitat is
                not prudent for the bog buck moth, in accordance with 50 CFR
                424.12(a)(1), because the co-occurring listed species faces an ongoing
                threat of unauthorized collection and trade, and critical habitat
                designation can reasonably be expected to increase the degree of these
                threats to this co-occurring species. Critical habitat is just one
                conservation tool under the Act and is not required for recovery
                planning and implementation efforts for the bog buck moth.
                Required Determinations
                Clarity of the Rule
                 We are required by Executive Orders 12866 and 12988 and by the
                Presidential Memorandum of June 1, 1998, to write all rules in plain
                language. This means that each rule we publish must:
                 (1) Be logically organized;
                 (2) Use the active voice to address readers directly;
                 (3) Use clear language rather than jargon;
                 (4) Be divided into short sections and sentences; and
                 (5) Use lists and tables wherever possible.
                 If you feel that we have not met these requirements, send us
                comments by one of the methods listed in ADDRESSES. To better help us
                revise the rule, your comments should be as specific as possible. For
                example, you should tell us the numbers of the sections or paragraphs
                that are unclearly written, which sections or sentences are too long,
                the sections where you feel lists or tables would be useful, etc.
                National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.)
                 We have determined that environmental assessments and environmental
                impact statements, as defined under the authority of the National
                Environmental Policy Act (NEPA; 42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), need not be
                prepared in connection with listing a species as an endangered or
                threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. We published a
                notice outlining our reasons for this determination in the Federal
                Register on October 25, 1983 (48 FR 49244).
                Government-to-Government Relationship With Tribes
                 In accordance with the President's memorandum of April 29, 1994
                (Government-to-Government Relations with Native American Tribal
                Governments; 59 FR 22951), Executive Order 13175 (Consultation and
                Coordination with Indian Tribal Governments), and the Department of the
                Interior's manual at 512 DM 2, we readily acknowledge our
                responsibility
                [[Page 57122]]
                to communicate meaningfully with recognized Federal Tribes on a
                government-to-government basis. In accordance with Secretarial Order
                3206 of June 5, 1997 (American Indian Tribal Rights, Federal-Tribal
                Trust Responsibilities, and the Endangered Species Act), we readily
                acknowledge our responsibilities to work directly with Tribes in
                developing programs for healthy ecosystems, to acknowledge that Tribal
                lands are not subject to the same controls as Federal public lands, to
                remain sensitive to Indian culture, and to make information available
                to Tribes. There are no known Tribal lands with bog buck moth
                populations. However, we will coordinate with Tribes to determine their
                interest in this proposed rule throughout the listing process as
                appropriate.
                References Cited
                 A complete list of references cited in this rulemaking is available
                on the internet at http://www.regulations.gov and upon request from the
                New York Ecological Services Field Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
                CONTACT).
                Authors
                 The primary authors of this proposed rule are the staff members of
                the Service's Species Assessment Team and the New York Ecological
                Services Field Office.
                List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 17
                 Endangered and threatened species, Exports, Imports, Reporting and
                recordkeeping requirements, Transportation.
                Proposed Regulation Promulgation
                 Accordingly, we propose to amend part 17, subchapter B of chapter
                I, title 50 of the Code of Federal Regulations, as set forth below:
                PART 17--ENDANGERED AND THREATENED WILDLIFE AND PLANTS
                0
                1. The authority citation for part 17 continues to read as follows:
                 Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1361-1407; 1531-1544; and 4201-4245, unless
                otherwise noted.
                0
                2. Amend Sec. 17.11(h) by adding an entry for ``Moth, bog buck'' to
                the List of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife in alphabetical order
                under Insects to read as set forth below:
                Sec. 17.11 Endangered and threatened wildlife.
                * * * * *
                 (h) * * *
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Listing citations and
                 Common name Scientific name Where listed Status applicable rules
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                
                 * * * * * * *
                 Insects
                
                 * * * * * * *
                Moth, bog buck.................. Hemileuca maia Wherever found.... E [Federal Register
                 menyanthevora) citation when
                 (=H. iroquois). published as a final
                 rule].
                
                 * * * * * * *
                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                * * * * *
                Martha Williams,
                Principal Deputy Director, Exercising the Delegated Authority of the
                Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
                [FR Doc. 2021-21856 Filed 10-13-21; 8:45 am]
                BILLING CODE 4333-15-P
                

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